Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Democratic strategy for Senate control and beyond

 The 2 senate runoff elections to be held Jan 5 2021 in Georgia will determine senate majority.  Strategy and policy shifts can keep that majority through 2024 and beyond.  Yes, freedom/social dividends is part of the strategy/policy mix, but this will discussed towards the end.

Deprograming the electorate as to the Republican party's anti-American evil

By rallying behind a dictator who is at least a little more pro fascist than anti fascist, they endanger republican voters for a future where a different narcissist threatens to bankrupt and invade their counties.

The republican backed Trump sabotaging of healthcare through the Supreme court this week is a tactic to destroy healthcare by blaming the court.  In 2018, republicans had majorities that permitted them to destroy healthcare through congress, but knew that doing so would lose even more congressional seats than through the cowardly court challenge process.  There is no ACA replacement plan other than a dumpster fire that requires emergency fixes.

The reason that economic collapse always follows thieving republican tax cuts for the rich, is that the tax cuts are accompanied by huge deficit increases, and those deficit increases juice up economic metrics unsustainably.  The goal is always to just keep the pyramid scheme going until the next election.  The anti-American unsustainable short termism is also exemplified by denial of covid reality, leveraging of covid response to attack blue states, opportunistically amplifying divisiveness resulting from unfair police executions of black men, destroying the climate/environment by deregulating dead ender climate terrorist fossil fuel industries in yet more short term benefits at the cost of future sustainability and energy productivity/relevance, and future agricultural and coastal property values.

Deprogramming strategy has to be a very forceful pushback on accusations of communism on an issue by issue basis.  The most moderate democrats support making America slightly less oppressive, and the most demonized democrats are not communists about to surrender Miami to Fidel Castro.  All republican politicans support making America more oppressive.  Deprogramming has to emphasize the evil of Trump support.

I will be writing a very difficult deprogramming focused article soon

Voter suppression and republican cheating must be top issue in GA senate races

Behind every effort to make voting easier or harder, republicans are on the side of making it harder.

GA senate candidates have called on republican secretary of state to resign because he failed to cheat enough.

Trump crony appointment of Dejoy to head USPS, and his attempt to sabotage mail voting through scrapping processing equipment while regularly attending republican campaign strategy meetings is clear election cheating attempt. 

DOJ head Barr ordering federal prosecutors to fish for partisan voter fraud is an abuse of government for clear election cheating.

Republican court packing with political operative hacks, especially Kavanaugh and Barret, is clear attempt to suppress voting and validate cheating.

For all Americans and Georgians, a fair election system is necessary to prevent dictatorships by either party.  A 50/50 senate will ensure that election fairness is promoted for the future.  With election fairness, republican and democrat candidates can focus on improving the country rather than destroying it for personal pillaging benefits.

For democrats specifically, this may be the last election with 8 hour voting lines.  There may be relief from oppressive ID requirements, and other voter throughput reducing measures (that lengthen lines and reduce maximum votes) as well.  For the country, a democratic majority will mean sane/less corrupt republican candidates in the future.

Extreme economic development opportunity for GA

For the bootlicking brownshirt cowardice wing of the republican party, they should consider simply switching boots.  With democrat senate control, they will be able to support all GA economic development/enhancement pork for the state of GA that is designed to keep GA blue.  The Warnock seat is only for 2 years, and GA economic support will flow quickly.  If the corrupt evil republican candidates win, they will simply join the obstruction that prevents GA from achieving economic growth that might support Democrat re-elections at the national level. 

The Democratic party wants to help GA grow and prosper.  Republicans want to destroy it, as a desperate propaganda ploy that "Democrats failed to prevent the destruction".

I will discuss the economic disaster that is the Vogtle nuclear boondogle further down, but federal assistance is likely on the table to bail out GA rate/tax payers for the disaster.  But only if Dems win senate.

With 80% of the US, according to Ipsos poll, understanding that Biden has won the presidency, not only does the corrupt shitstain republican candidates endorsement of postelection Trump and call for GA republicans who did not cheat enough to resign, place an 80% democrat vote share as a ceiling, the remaining 20% of conspiracy-desperate voters has a large share of bootlickers who are still instinctive enough to not pick shitstained loser boots.

Moderate healthcare improvements

Republicans want to make health insurance more oppressive and less reliable:  make it easier for coverage to be dropped when you get sick.

Biden's plan for reducing the age of eligibility for medicare to 60 is a huge benefit to everyone.  It reduces insurance premiums for everyone else, and insurance industry profits, because those over 60 are more likely to incur high healthcare costs, and throwing them out of the insurance pool, reduces insurance payouts that may trickle down to premium payers.

The public option insurance scheme is not as smart.  While it is a trojan horse to attempt to slowly get to single payer healthcare, and in the short term will protect private insurance profits, it does so by moving sick people onto public option and healthy people onto cheaper private plans.  But everyone is paying high taxes to support both public and private insurance rate payers and profits.  The problem with the end game of deciding between single payer and extortion healthcare is the evil propaganda that "private insurance appears much cheaper" (when it only insures healthy people).

There is a public option that is much more moderate than Bernie's vision for a Platinum M4A.  Call it Bronze M4A, with options for platinum supplemental coverage that may keep private insurers viable.  

M4A is obviously better for 3 simple reasons:

1. Cheaper overall.  Healthcare costs per person go down on average.

2. You don't need to worry about insurance weaseling out of paying.  You could buy enhanced coverage on top of M4A

3. The only people who love their insurance are those who get it for "free" from work.  An M4A bill could ensure that the costs to employee/employer of providing healthcare are transferred as extra cash to salaries/wages.

M4A means more money in Americans pockets (less insurance+ out of pocket costs > tax increases) with more trustworthy/reliable health insurance.  There's the option of supplemental coverage to match any existing coverage options.  The option to use extra cash for anything.

This is a better option than a public option because it is far less expensive to tax payers, and platinum supplemental coverage providers need to make premiums attractive if the coverage does not seem essential.

Even if "moderate dems" want to protect the expensive private health model with small bandaid improvements, they can still angrily call out the fascist disinformation who want to make healthcare more exploitative.  

Campaign should be less about defending a specific form of improvement to healthcare access and costs, and more about attacking the depravity of republicans for American hating attempts at destroying healthcare access.  If GA republican shitstain candidates win, they will obstruct any and all attempts to improve healthcare.

Single payer (tax funded) healthcare, even at the minimal bronze level, significantly improves the economic dynamism of America.  People can start businesses without healthcare worries.  They can join smaller businesses as employees without burdening those businesses with the cost and energy to manage employee healthcare, not placing smaller business at a disadvantage for talent acquisition.  Tax funded healthcare also benefits (higher employer premium cost) polluting/hazardous/big businesses with international competition.

Climate change and energy policy

GA does not have fossil fuel interests and so no valid loyalty to expensive legacy energy.  Adopting cheaper renewables before its neighbor states will permit GA to colonize its neighbors' energy needs under a carbon tax with dividend energy policy model, which will eventually become necessary as renewable energy penetration eventually stalls.

The Biden climate plan is good in its generous budgetary allocation.  There are several inefficiencies included in the plan:  All nuclear research/development funding is 100% waste with zero potential to assist energy transition, not only for the absurdly exepensive and uncompetitive energy, but the 10-15 year delay in commissioning a reactor that means either zero progress on renewables during the wait, or immediate bankruptcy for the useless energy generator upon commissioning.  Building efficiency retrofits are poor use of funds because new renewable energy financing provides orders of magnitude more emission reductions per dollar invested.  Efficiency/self power generation standards for new construction are exceptionally good policy.  Solar integrated during building construction is as cheap as utility scale projects.

The rapid (2030ish) path to 95%+ clean energy is through a large amount of cheap renewables sufficient to meet every day's electricity needs, a small amount of batteries to buffer renewable energy into a baseload-like service, and hydrogen infrastructure that takes the surplus energy produced on most days to deliver reliable on demand energy to transportation, industry and buildings.  A carbon tax and dividend (all pollution tax revenue collected redistributed as an equal cash payment to residents) is key to rapid adoption of clean energy and transportation because without a carbon tax, oil and gas prices go towards 0, and low cost climate destroying energy helps counterbalance any climate protecting energy adoption.  A carbon tax centered climate policy is one that achieves progress with economic dynamism and with minimal centralized government expense.  It is the dead ender climate terrorists who pay through loss of asset value.  It is easy to transfer climate policy to other jurisdictions whose cooperation is essential when carbon taxes are the central means of emission reduction.

The republican candidates for GA senate are beholden to national republican party for funding their corruption.  That republican party in turn is beholden to climate terrorist dead ender energy interests.  Loyalty to RNC is incompatible with respect for GA citizens need for agricultural and coastal property sustainability and incompatible with GA energy progress including the potential with a carbon tax for Vogtle to provide marginally competitive energy as an attractive export to neighbors.

The breakeven amount of additional money to throw into the Vogtle 1GW nuclear money pit for its completion is $3B.  With the same amount 3 GW of solar could be deployed with enough left over for a battery buffer that turns that solar into a baseload power source.  The future decommissioning costs of Vogtle are not included, but would increase the alternative battery buffer size.  3GW of solar could be deployed in 1 year.  Whether Vogtle is abandoned or not, republican responsibility for this continued ruinous theft, will harm GA forever.  The Democrat GA senate candidates are the only ones who can ensure that the nuclear energy nightmare is not ever imposed elsewhere in America.  The enslavement of white and black Georgians must be liberated from republican graft, or at least given a strongly worded reprimand.

Genuine unity possible with Democrat Senate win

Andrew Yang is in GA campaigning for Democrat senate candidates, and except for mistaken nuclear energy advocacy and a late campaign switch to unproductive public option healthcare, has a centrist, math focused unifying policies to achieve progressive outcomes without invoking culture war issues.

AY is renown for advocating for covid stimulus/freedom dividends.  Both are unconditional cash grants given to citizens.  Covid stimulus has been obstructed by Republican controlled senate.

Freedom/covid dividends are great for rich people.  It permits landlords and banks to collect housing payments.  Permits Businesses to have more customers to sell to, and employ people to take those customers' money.

Freedom dividends are great for lower classes generally because it permits the economic dynamism of entrepreneurship and education and mobility, and does so through individual centered/empowered means.

What is underappreciated is the potential for freedom dividends to end the institutional racism that leads to aggressive policing of black men.  Freedom dividends leads to lower crime rates because criminal activity is risky and desperate, and UBI ends desperation.  A chickenshit police uses qualified immunity and fear to shoot 10 times and ask questions later.  Looking like a criminal is the pretext for aggressive policing, and if crime is rare, then no one looks like a criminal.  While most people fear a "defund the police" message, they do so from a perspective of uncertainty rather than hatred.  Many people can be convinced to not hate, I'd hope, and it's easier when you can park your lambo in every neighborhood, and 4 police per 100 residents is a lot more (tax) expensive than 2 per 100.

Freedom dividends are also the only potential general economic/pandemic relief that can be fairly self funded.  UBI is simply a refundable tax credit that is offset by tax rate increases, but it is only the highest income earners that pay more in taxes than they receive in UBI, but these same people also earn more from the economic growth provided by UBI.

The most unifying aspect of freedom dividends is that no one is selected by discretionary power hierarchy as deserving more than anyone else.

Some proposals here are different than the official Democratic platform

Policy and bills will be set in congress.  The existence and consideration of better and more progressive alternatives to improve America than the President's choice offers more paths to progress, and different coalitions to progress.  A tied majority democrat senate permits compromises with republicans where such compromise provides greater value in achieving progressive goals.  With a republican senate majority only obstruction and turning America into the biggest dumpster fire possible will be pursued.  Dumpster fire extinguisher 2024 is their new platform.

Campaigning both to the left and center (center does not mean towards anti American republicans) while hinting/pretending that GA focused economic development is compatible with something some democrat has proposed is a winning campaign platform.  Pragmatic/bootlicker republicans will understand that 2 and 4 year prosperity for GA depends on a democratic senate majority.

Insulting the disgrace of the personally corrupt insider trading RNC loyal shitstain candidates must be emphasized over defending Democrat policies.  The shitstains only have Trump/RNC loyalty as policy positions, and Trump only believes in dumpster fire.  Georgians deserve better than a dumpster fire, and the rest of the country will be very grateful if they choose prosperity by electing both Democratic Senate candidates.

To moderate democrat politicians who feel they lost because opponents called them or Joe/Bernie/AOC anti-police commies, they should have pushed back against the lying, America hating, pillaging oligarch, fascists, by calling them nazis.  As Sean Connery said "Its the Chicago way".  Sure you end up having to backtrack on whether they meet the exact definition of nazis, but that can be done while underlining their lying, their exploitative hatred of Americans and their health, their support for oligarch pillaging the economy, their support for police brutality, and their support for an unconstitutional dictator led dumpster fire.  "Sure, they seem supportive of a zionist agenda.  The reason they deserve to be called nazis is entirely due to their unfair accusations of communism and socialism."  The more moderate the democratic candidate, the more angry they should be about opponent lies against them and the party.  Joe Biden can take the scoffing high road dismissive approach to the mud slinging, but house candidates especially need more fire, including the most moderate ones.  Fire can include both positioning different from AOC, but strongly defending unfair attacks on AOC.

Beyond the GA senate runoff election

Iowa is apparently supportive of being sacrificial pawns in China trade wars to sacrifice their farmers for coastal financial and tech empires access to China markets.  Compared to 2018 governor race, Iowa went an extra 5 points to republicans.  Iowa voters should be shamed into redemption for such support.  The bootlickers only understand which boot is the correct choice.  Any republican candidate who echoes Trump loyalties should be attacked for anti American/Iowan values.  It is local candidates who should show the disparity in federal investment between counties that support Democrats and those who hate America.  The same strategy will get gains in Nebraska and Kansas.

Democrats have a reputation for walking a line between promises of progress and deliverables on progress.  In this election, some black celebrities and leftists implied that since Obama failed to end racism, a vote for the Trump dumpster fire was encouraged.

Once upon a time, the republican party used to stand for economic dynamism.  By including progressive policies implemented through dynamism rather than centralized supervision (M4A is included as a dynamic solution to healthcare because it frees people and business from needless financial oppression, dependence (on employer), and management by business of health coverage), the democratic party can expand its appeal, while potentially delaying progress if that is their motive, but key to power, further placing the republican party as a destructive untrustworthy dumpster fire only obstructionists. 

Thursday, April 16, 2020

R0 - R naught is not a useful basis for viral spreading or econopolitical decision making

R0 measures the number of people one infected person will infect.  It is somewhat useful from a macro scale ruler and health care empire decision making, including social policy that can hope to reduce R0.  The health care empire's objectives are not in complete alignment with society or the individual, as they will bias decisions towards the health care empire's profits/power/safety.

This paper will first explore a micro virology model, and then discuss economic management.  The most important contribution of this paper is consideration of social apathy and antipathy as a viral spreading factor, and as usual for my papers, UBI is a central component of the solution, though mainly the context of social antipathy is being considered.

A micro viral spreading model
Macro viral models are best represented by summing over micro (individuallistic) models.  The summation can be simplified with averages and distribution of individuals (micro models).  This model measures virus concentrations in an individual as the only factor in health and spreading outcomes.

  • X: Threshold of virus below there is any outgoing infectious spread.  If no further incoming infectious load, it is likely that immune response will bring virus level to 0.
  • Y: Threshold below which there are no symptoms.  
  • Z: Threshold below which symptoms are mild enough to not seek medical (doctor) advice, or where general immune boosting activities (sleep, rest, vitamins, no further virus exposure) can hope to cause recovery. 
  • H:  Threshold below which hospitalization is not necessary/advised/sufficiently helpful.  The healthcare empire may subdivide these thresholds into further ICU, and ventilator therapy thresholds.  The necessary rationing/demand of healthcare further sets the "advised" component of this threshold.
  • D:  Threshold below which patient is still alive, or has hopeful prognosis.  Prognosis is relevant relative to healthcare availability factors.
This virus model is similar to radiation exposure models/limits.

Social apathy:  means general narcissism that shows little concern for others, especially those outside family circle.  Both X and Y thresholds have the same impact on the self.  Y, or the risk of possibly having Y status, makes no difference to the social-apath's behaviour.  Seeking information reinforcing that any spread of the pandemic will affect the self below the Z threshold, is the social-apath's nature, and only external shame/pressure can pressure the social-apath's behaviour within the Y and Z thresholds.

Social antipathy: is the belief that society deserves harm as a result of the oppression and misery inflicted upon the individual by society (structurally) and government.  For countries outside of the US, a cheap minimization of sociopathy is to blame the US for difficulties.  For the US, the only historical policy has been, to paraphrase the song "fortunate son", more cannons will be pointed at you until social antipathy is relieved.  UBI is the most important social cohesion policy tool.  Too much policy relies on favouritism instead.

Sociopathic levels within a society can explain the different rates of spread of a virus.  Respect for, and a lack of hatred for, others can enhance participation to containment and social norms.  Asia may have lower sociopathic levels than the rest of the world.

The line between apathy and antipathy is the one between inconsideration and motivated disrespect.

Is it safe to lick the airport bathroom door?
The viral dosage you will get from touching or licking an airport bathroom door, depends on the amount of breathing, coughing, sneezing, touching of the door since its last disinfection, as well as whether the other people interacting with the door were infected or not.  To estimate the infection dosage deposited by those people, you can consider where they (recent flights) are from,  each person's "social index" (how often they share breath and surfaces with other people), and their "paranoia/self/social preservation index" (how often they wash hands and track/avoid potential dosage transmission.  NY and LA departure bathroom doors may have higher risk than Nebraska departure bathrooms.  The "may qualifier"  is there because NY residents who have a higher presumption of infection may also have a higher paranoia index that makes them have a lower "transmissionable exchange" rate.

Moving away from R0 relevance
R0 is dependent upon social interaction and paranoia indexes.  The proposed "Bayesian model" informs social and individual policy.  The medical and biological community need to calculate the viral dose that is expelled and impelled as a result of all relevant actions and conditions.

Herd and individual immunity
Opening a window, or going outside away from people results in the most minimal imported viral dosage.  Opening a window may even improve the indoor air quality/viral saturation such that viral dosage is reduced for those spending significant time indoors.  For nearly everyone, these activities are certain to keep viral load below threshold X, and produce some antibodies.

The alternative of being bubble people for 14 or 30 days will result in fewer/no antibodies, and greater risk to those individuals after the bubble is escaped.

Any outside social interaction will have a lower breath/cough exchange rate than indoor interaction. 

Outdoor construction/shared touching activities can be made safe with gloves and masks and portable sanitation equipment (hand cleansers in a bottle separate from hand sanitizer).  The combination of gloves and masks makes touching one's own face (with glove) unlikely.

Short shopping excursions or other low exposure activities followed by 2-3 days of isolation and rest is likely to result in antibody production while remaining below the X threshold and raising individual's X thresholds.  While the X threshold is defined as the virus load that results in no shedding/expelling of virus, it can also be considered to be a viral shedding rate that is of no threat to cause others to exceed their X level.

This advice contradicts health care empire ambitions of providing immunity through vaccines.  But without a vaccine, variolation has historical success, and may be a free innoculation method with model guidance.

The power of testing
Testing anyone who is concerned they might have the virus with quick results has significant benefits.
It expands those who are below Y and Z thresholds of virus load from concerned status to certain status.  Those certain of having the virus can be convinced to isolate and rest, and use therapeutics with higher success chance (because early in progress of disease) than if they do not know they have the virus.  Testing removes high virus shedders from social interaction.

Social antipaths vs social apaths may care less about testing or their infectious status.  But even they can be convinced that isolated rest and other treatments will help them.  This is easier if testing and treatment is free to them, and if isolation itself doesn't threaten their survival (through lost income), and so UBI as well as "free" healthcare both improve compliance with advised reaction to test results.

But, another critical benefit of testing is "forced" quarantine.  Can support the quarantined with free delivered food, thermometers, and possibly home entertainment services of their choice.  The cost is minimal, but lower community spread benefits immense.  Simpler support service for the quarantined is an increased UBI amount.

Reopening non essential parts of economy
An important consideration for stores and offices is indoor air quality and air exchange rates.  Air exchange designs balance energy efficiency with air quality in normal-non-pandemic times.  Open windows or filtering systems/upgrades can be helpful in reducing virus concentrations in air.

Stores and offices opening for 1-2 days per week (not all places the same day) at fractional capacity would allow for employee rest periods that can hope to manage employee exposure to below their X threshold.  

This also reduces pressure on transit and nearby food support restaurants/services.

Priority for outdoor economic/social activities, especially for summer, is important.  Closing off car traffic for street festivals every weekend, and/or weekday, with pop ups in front of every retail/restaurant location with limited indoor capacity use.  Heavy increase in food cart licensing.  Public hand sanitizing dispensers.

Renewable energy projects would be a good outdoor employment, or personal home renovation work, opportunity.

Unemployment benefits are economically stupid
Unemployment and welfare benefits are stupid because they incur a 50% income surtax on earnings as one of the many conditions for those benefits.  So, these benefits pay people to refuse work.

UBI, cash not conditional upon income, is bonus pay to essential workers, does not depend on an overloaded application denial process, does not favour only the conditionally deserving, and most importantly does not prevent a partial/part-time reopening of the economy.

Every corporate subsidy as pandemic response is theft from citizenry
Every program, whether pandemic response driven or not, that is not UBI is evil favrouritism.  Bailing out the rich will not create investment in your country.  Only a healthy consumer base will.  Bailouts aimed at employment subsidies are bailouts for the rich because it increases the dependence of employees on those employers.  Society and the economy is better off if those employees are free to pursue useful work opportunities, and the freedom is likely to lead to better re-employment offers when their original work is needed again.  Creating special classes of people, whose work is already the most prone to cutbacks during recessions, to receive tax payer funded incomes close to their past incomes, while others struggle, or are merely forced to bear the future tax/debt burden of these bailouts, is equally misplaced favouritism to ensuring the rich lose as little as possible. 

The risk of lower GDP, and wealth, does not magically make safe government spending unlimited.  One of the perfections of UBI, pandemic or not, is that it is not charitable favouritism.  It is self funded with higher tax rates, or just simple changes in the tax code.  Those whose income/profits are not impaired by the pandemic subsidize the country so that they can keep an economy/civilization that allows them to continue earning income.

The thieving filth that supports bailing out airlines (or generally any other program) is steeling from you.  $60B is $300 that could be paid to each adult American.  If there is no reason to fly very much right now, then parking the planes instead of blowing them up, will keep airlines in a position to resume flight schedules over time.  Market restructuring of the companies/debt would reduce airline fares.  Bailouts do not.  $300 cash would be preferred by anyone not in airline industry, that also allows individuals to buy more air travel.  

Social antipathy and revolt management
The traditional justification for left wing policy such as unemployment insurance is that it prevents revolt.  The unemployed recipient of benefits does not care that he is paid to do nothing-- incentivized to not earn employment income for duration of benefits.  He is just happy to be catered to, or more relevantly, not  motivated to participate in revolt.  Suicidal mass murder rampages are not a political threat, even if sociopathic.

The justification for right wing policy of corporate and rich bailouts is that the upper classes and media can collude to instill more oppression in the economy.  Prevent the rich to fund economically useful opposition to political rulership, by being included in the collusion.  Corporations and the rich are happy to pillage the economy rather than invest in it, because, like the unemployed, they like more free money, rather than the opportunity to work to make more.

Another practical argument for getting pluto-oligarchs to pillage the economy through inflated asset prices, is that inflated asset prices keep the economy afloat for longer with more to pillage.  UBI also supports asset prices, and benefits every oligarch who does not require slavery and oppression to profit.  UBI encourages the oligarchs to invest in a consumer rich economy.  Workers are better paid in a consumer rich economy, making it even more consumer rich, and justifying even more investment.  UBI means genuinely/sustainable higher asset prices, rather than juiced up unsustainable artificially high asset prices.

The problem with traditional revolt management policies, besides their evil or stupidity, is that there is a limited amount of money, and the greater the lie in asset prices, the greater the eventual crash.  The lie can never be unwound.  Every penny not spent on unconditional cash/UBI is a penny wasted.  The waste creates revolt potential after the pandemic has passed, and paying for the waste is through proposals for more tax cuts on the rich and military overspending (and pillaging cuts to safety nets).

UBI means more social cohesion, and less social pathy.  Even the rich do not need to fund revolt if there are consumer spending opportunities, and no matter how stupid and gullible you are, your jealousy, hatred and racism cannot be manipulated into rejecting the freedom dividend you deserve.

Despite revolt prevention, which requires coordination and great effort and risk, structured sociopathy (amplifying anger and discontent) increases virus spread because it is a low effort means to act out on social anger/indifference.  When pandemic response policy does not maximize unconditional cash, it does not maximize social cohesion needed to limit willful/indiferent virus spread and limit anxiety/despair and the potential health consequences thereof. 

Inflation, deflation, and election management
The US federal reserve is primarily, almost exclusively, a pro banking institution.  In September 2019, the Fed began what would become by the end of the year a $1T printed injection in repo operations on top of interest rate cuts.  These actions were pure political pro-Trump hackery designed to interfere with Democratic primaries, with no economic purpose whatsoever, and based on initial lie that it was to help smooth over quaterly tax payments by banking clients.  The actual purpose was to juice financial markets, by replacing lenders who would normally juice financial markets through their loans, who were buying in financial markets instead of lending, with Fed repo loans that the borrowers could also use to cheaply buy into financial markets.  Investigation for criminal indictment of Federal reserve for those actions alone are warranted, but pandemic Fed response as a ploy to delay civilization collapse until after a Trump re-election needs to be guarded against.  There is enough people with power who prefer Trump re-election even if it collapses civilization.  Destroying America was always plan A.

The Fed and its banking constituency always needs to prevent asset deflation above all other concerns.  Banking system loans depends on collateral that remains valued higher than the loan value.  The real money supply is the sum of asset values.  The major problem with juicing up asset values in casual (good) economic times is that the inflated lie becomes the baseline against which deflation must be protected.

When the banking system is not threatened by collapse inducing deflation, they prefer interest rates around 5% for decent profit from loans environment, that includes enough unemployment to make slavery/labour oppression a profitable environment for borrowers to be able to repay those loans.  Asset inflation without wage and goods/services inflation works nicely for banks, except that with high asset inflation they could, if allowed, invest in assets directly rather than lend against them, though asset inflation is never sustainably certain.  For banking system, and general society, it is only relative (changes in) inflation that is of concern.  Any stable inflation rate, no matter how high, provides a good profit framework for banking system.

UBI is no threat to the inflation/deflation balance, or to banking system profits.  Tax funded UBI does not reduce banking system deposits, it does increase loan demand, makes a high growth economy such that those loans are likely to be repaid, and any inflation in assets and labour/prices, enhances sustainable economic growth and asset price inflation, loan values and interest margins.  Stock assets are genuinely and sustainably worth more as a result of higher sales volume, rather than the recent unsustainable pillaging of increasing stock prices through buybacks and cost cutting.

The coming stagflation
Stagflation was a term/phenomenon from the 1970s where high inflation associated with oil shock, led to high interest rates, high unemployment, and recessionary times.  Normally recessions lead to low interest rates.

Businesses that (re)open at 25% capacity need to charge customers enough to earn 4x profit per customer in order to maintain previous full capacity profits.  They need fewer employees at the lower capacity.  They need to increase sanitation/screening/health costs that are passed on to 1/4 of the customer base.  There is likely to be upward pressure on wages as a hazard (and welfare surtax) premium, unless a systematic structured starvation policy is adopted.

The major problem with opportunistic theft of Fed and government spending policy being diverted to propping up asset prices, and the richest's wealth, under the lie that the economy, and those underlying asset prices, will be back to their unsustainable normals in a month, is that the lying pretense is a lie.  Interest rates will have to shoot up to reflect risk of borrowers.  Any money given to airlines is a complete writeoff (the industry goes bankrupt every recession, and not even their employees are special snow flakes deserving more than their fellow citizens), and less ammunition to maintain asset prices at a credible (still higher than sustainable) level in the future.

The travel, entertainment, hospitality sectors may be a relatively modest percentage of economic spending, but they are a high employment percentage, and the human survival of the sector is important to the rest of the economy.  US travel and tourism $1.6T, 7.8M jobs; restaurants $300B 15.1M jobs; Live event and movie box offices $40B.  About 10% of economy in total, but up to 20% of jobs.  This can mean a 10%-20% revenue reduction to businesses that would presumably be unaffected by virus, and 10%-20% employment reduction in those industries.  There are further downward spiraling 10%-20% knock-on effects.

There is no possible Fed fueling/buying of inflated company assets that makes those companies be able to operate at a loss indefinitely.  Grossly inflated Fed asset purchases, as they have done at the beginning of this crisis, necessarily has a limit, and necessarily leads to a collapse in those asset prices when that limit is reached, and transparently absurd pretense of US dollar and assets value becomes clearer.  Fed corruption, prevents the massive amount of available global and US wealth from taking the risks to bail out/restructure these companies at a fair rate, but where the risk is individualized to those willing to take it, rather than a risk of forced collapse that impairs everyone's survival.

UBI is an excellent prevention of this upcoming stagflation collapse.  Higher tax rates can provide partial temporary funding, where, automatically, those successful enough to prosper in the near term economic environment can help subsidize the economic contributions from those who are harmed from near term economic environment, all the while, increasing the economic success of the successful (through spending of UBI).  UBI can mean that people can afford the higher prices that result from lower capacity hospitality/entertainment/travel consumption.  UBI means being able to afford rent/mortgages that prevents banking sector collapse.  It means most companies can maintain previous sales volumes that prevents collapse of their shareholder wealth.  It significantly boosts employment demand so that ordinary workers can thrive, and frees up time/creativity to create own work and opportunities to employ others in adaptation to economic needs.

The benefits of UBI outweigh the benefits of slavery to both the ruling oligarchs and to the slaves.  Military, clergy, and politicians, and to a lesser extent exporters, are the only ones who require perpetual popular misery to thrive.  They can be pressured and outnumbered to relent to freedom.

Health sector information we need clarified
We know that the majority of c19 infections are aymptomatic at time of test.  We don't know whether the asymptomatic are only temporarily so (like HIV), or recover without any symptoms ever occurring , and we don't know if these individuals shed less virus through breath, or touch from breath on hands, than those who are symptomatic.  (suggestion that asymptomatics are as contagious as others and can frequently recover without infection)

For the viral model described at the beginning of this paper, the key parameter needed from biology/health sector is how much virus is shed from aymptomatics through breath through mask.  This number, determines from presumed percentage of infected who cannot be screened out by fever checks will contribute to virus levels in indoor air.

With a universal threshold X intake per day, followed by prescribed isolation days to let the body reduce virus levels, the customer traffic within a space, along with air quality measures (filtering and outside air exchange), safe density policies can be developed for both employees and customers in establishments and vehicles.

Model data can focus indoor air quality measures that increase capacity for a space.  In addition to filters, UV lighting has purported benefits.  It is likely more profitable to install UV lighting than to operate a space at 1/4 capacity.

A phone app can help everyone model safety for many activities, and do so better than a doctor, or at least not consume their time,  if the health sector provides the needed parameters.

Preliminary model input data
High rates of infection among nursing home residents and health care workers who take hygiene advice seriously should strongly point to indoor air "quality" (viral load within indoor space) as a transmission vector.  If correct, high grade masks and better air exchange/filtering would be highly recommended, if rationing were not an issue.  Health advice based on secret (as possible) rationing restrictions harms the policy efforts required to remove the rationing restrictions.

Regardless of whether indoor environments can be classified as dangerous, it seems absurd to have an identical social distancing recommendation (2m) in indoor calm, and outdoor turbulent environments.

The lack of transmissivity-circumstance models leads to simplified advice bias towards being too harsh, or biased to being insufficient where rationing leads to insufficiency.  Propaganda models lead to socialpathy and non-conformance.

Saturday, March 14, 2020

UBI vs payroll tax cuts (as pandemic response)

UBI focused tax policy serves economic and social prosperity in the best of times, but an urgency is created in times of mass disemployment.

Once $1T in combined tax and cash deficit stimulus has been decided...
... you cannot call one policy alternative dirty pinko commie, while the other alternative is labelled great American capitalism.  Trump has recommended an annual  $1T revenue loss measure of payroll tax elimination.  This paper is about exploring the best way to implement a $1T deficit increase which has already been committed to, by President and any congress member that supports his proposal.

I advocate for payroll tax elimination, but with revenue replacement
In Canada and US, Payroll taxes are between 14% and 15% of employement salaries and wages up to a maximum limit on employment income.  The employer pays half the tax.  Payroll taxes are thus regressive applying only to middle and lower income individuals, and excluding investment income from their taxation.

For a 14% payroll tax, a replacement tax policy that leaves middle and lower income wage earners with a minimal 0.49% tax impact is a 7% pay increase (the employer portion of payroll tax) and a 7% point increase in tax rates.  Because the tax base is significantly broadened, the policy is a significant social revenue enhancer.  Social revenue neutrality can be created by replacing the 7% point income tax rate increase with a tax rate increase between 4% and 5% points.

Another, UBI argument friendly, rationale for payroll tax replacement is that it acts as a robot tax.  There is no longer a tax advantage for employers to automate or contract away employee costs.

Revenue replacement/restructuring from payroll tax elimination is always economic and social strengthening progressive tax policy.

Pandemic responsive economic stimulus
Work (payroll) tax incentives incentivize the opposite of desirable social distancing policy to limit overwhelming pandemic infection spread.  It furthermore amplifies the usual desperation focused economic enslavement to encourage behaviour that is dangerous to workers and society.  Specifically, the desperate willfully ignoring either possible or certain infection in order to achieve the survival goals they are made desperate to pursue.

A payroll tax cut is also a benefit to those who don't need it:  Those lucky enough to have their work hours cut less than 7% as a result of the pandemic.  Eliminating the business side of the payroll tax is not going to prevent the economic decision of laying off an unneeded employee just because their pay costs the company 7% less.

UBI- unconditional cash- helps everyone.  An extremely beneficial feature of UBI shown in the Finland pilot project is the greater social and institutional trust it created in participants.  UBI allows for ethical and socially positive considerations to be relevant in behaviour.  It creates a less divisive, in fact, cohesive society.  It is a policy that escapes the usual favoritism of political process.

UBI vs income conditional assistance
UBI is a much quicker economic stimulus than creating a bureaucracy set up to deny applications that do not meet income or asset based criteria.  As a pandemic response, everyone who filed a tax return last (or this upcoming) year with an in-country address can be sent a payment.

What makes permanent UBI cheaper than conditional programs is that the elimination of programs means that for any budget level, less net (of UBI) tax revenue needs to be collected.  Any "ideological" need for a conditional program is eliminated through an even higher UBI level, which in turn, makes UBI even cheaper.

Even as a pandemic response, any argument for income conditional assistance can be negated by funding the UBI.  Permanent UBI programs in the US and Canada can be funded with a 10% point tax increase.  For a $1000/month UBI, everyone earning under $120k/year receives a net tax cut.  (At $120k income, $12k in extra income taxes balances $12k in UBI).

Even as a pandemic and recovery plan, funding UBI with an income tax increase on individuals and businesses allows budgetary room for additional pandemic response.  Those lucky enough to keep earning money through the pandemic can afford to pay for its containment, and in the recovery, even those faced with higher tax burdens, will have significantly higher income earning potential than without the stimulus.

As a post pandemic recovery plan, very high employment requirements will be pursued to collect sales from the UBI enriched consumer base.  A quick and successful recovery and growth is assured.

Despite any programming provided by Fox news and CNBC that has convinced you that even social collapse is preferable to a tax increase on the rich, let me assure you that collapse will hurt your income and wealth far more than any tax rate increases.  Tax revenue is not burned, and UBI ensures that it is channeled back to the most useful goods and service providers.

The only people/groups that ever get poorer as a result of tax funded UBI are those that require slavery/desperation in order to profit.  Everyone else, rich and poor, is much better off in after tax income, and socially through peace (lower crime) and cohesion.

My latest complete tax plan (with links to previous alternatives):