A YES vote would NOT mean
2500 CHF is given to every adult citizen starting the following month. There is no stipulated amount/details as part of the referendum question. In my view, it is an organizer mistake to have set the expectation of a YES vote so high, as it is too scary and disruptive to people.
A YES vote would mean
refundable tax credits hopefully totalling at least 1250CHF/month would be implemented soon. The same politicians that recommend against UBI would be in charge of this implementation. A YES vote simply forces them to make progress on the issue.
A 25%-78% average tax reduction
The 2500CHF/month plan has been costed out to 208Bchf (paid to Swiss)/year, with funding of 153Bchf (paid by Swiss) tax increases. 55Bchf is saved in social programs. This creates an obvious taxpayer benefit. 26.5% of the 2500CHF UBI benefit or 662.50CHF/month is the average tax payer/citizen net benefit.
While I don't understand the Swiss tax system, I do understand that federal collections are 10% of GDP so about 70Bchf/year, and the 55Bchf in savings would be a 78.5% reduction of federal tax funding of operations (even though actual funding changes are likely to be spread across multiple levels of government).
With the 1250CHF/month plan, the cost is necessarily 104Bchf (half), and savings would likely be over 35Bchf, as some of the 55Bchf of programs cut are meant only for those whose income is below 15Kchf/year, and all of the remaining programs can have funding cuts offset by the 1250CHF benefit. This creates a net 400CHF/month average tax payer benefit or 33% of the UBI payments. It is a 50% government funding reduction to taxpayers.
The net tax benefit and funding savings are entirely a function of program eliminations. The higher the UBI, the greater possible program eliminations, and so the greater the savings and net tax benefits. High UBI levels do not cost taxpayers anymore than lower levels because UBI is primarily a taxpayer to taxpayer transfer.
The magic of UBI funding
The government is like a store that is funded with say an average donation of $1000/mo/person who then distributes the goods it decides that cost it an average of $1000/mo/person. Despite the averages some people pay more and some receive more, and that is not necessarily objectionable.
The objectionable problem of a store deciding what goods it should give you, is that the value of the goods is determined after subtracting the costs of deciding who deserves them, and also enforcing that no one cheats by pretending to be deserving. The equally objectionable aspect is that providing the goods the store wants to give you does not get you the goods you would want to have.
Direct equal money provided by government still permits socialized funding of the store, but none of the stupidity of it deciding what to sell/give you. There's no reason for people to remain deserving (poor) for extra benefits, and the entire bureaucratic overhead of deciding what is good for you is eliminated. You can use the money at any store and get what you want/need.
The fear of other people not working
should really be the hope that other people stop working. All of your work opportunities exist only because clients can't or wont do the work. You buy indoor plumbing systems because you are too lazy - it is not worth your effort - to go to the river each day with a pail for your water.
If you were the only person in Switzerland that is willing to work, and there is UBI, then everyone else will give you all of their UBI to buy your work services. The more people who might stop working as a result of UBI, the easier it is for you to find a job, as there will be fewer people competing with you, and the easier it is for you to get a pay raise if there are fewer people to replace you.
The people who gain from opposing UBI
are mainly those who own exporting businesses that rely on the exploitative power granted by miserable and desperate Swiss. There are also a few people who are completely indifferent to the health of Swiss society such as some government workers and politicians, and passive trust and foreign asset holders.
Of these, only exporters directly benefit from exploitative power. Government workers directly employed by social programs can wish to protect their payment for useless and unnecessary gatekeeping of social services, but if they are willing to work, UBI (+ severance packages) should be adequate compensation to move to an easier- less competitive- private sector.
The other groups are basically indifferent to Swiss happiness. Their only cost to personal relative happiness is other people's gain of basic happiness and stress relief, such that their relative status and privilege. Still only the very richest of these would face a tax cost as opposed to a tax benefit from UBI, and it is a substantial evil to stand in the way of Swiss progress and happiness for such petty and minor concerns.
The 0.1% that are export driven, the 5% government job holders threatened by program savings, and the 5% indifferent leaves 90% to benefit from UBI.
The 90% of winners
The average 662CHF or 400CHF per month net tax benefit can be structured such that 90% or more receive some tax benefit, and 10% or less face a tax increase. Everyone who wishes not to work won't have to, and so gains a choice they value. Everyone that wants to earn more money will find it easier, and even those in the private sector who face a tax increase will increase their after tax earnings as a result of both easier work opportunities, and the substantial economic purchase power of the Swiss as a result of UBI.
The economic stimulus from UBI is a very significant social (and individual opportunity) benefit on top of the individual tax benefits. UBI will reduce the need for Swiss savings. The new Swiss purchasing power will attract (employment producing) investment from all over the world.
The psychotic need for control
Switzerland is objectively the least politically corrupt nation in the world. Permitted popular referendums, and resistance to military enslavement, appears impossible everywhere else in the world. Yet despite the 90%+ self and collective interest for basic income, the YES vote percentage is likely to be less than this. Sure, export focused sponsors of media manipulative lies misinform you, but it is psychotic hatred of other people's freedom that causes you to internalize the misinformation.
The 3 reasons to work:
- Self-interested compensation for work. UBI frees all of you from the survival need for compensation. You retain the freedom to work purely for additional compensation.
- The desire to help other's goals, with the focus on helping. This is social motivation/manipulation that can be enhanced through UBI. Removal of survival financing obligation opens up more opportunities.
- Goal oriented desire to create. Focus is on the work/output itself.
Basic income inherently guarantees fair and free labour markets where the pursuit of money, in the context of voluntarily helping others is fully maintained without coercion or psychopathic manipulation. It further permits the freer pursuit of your own goals, for which you may also enhance the prosperity of labour market participants who, for enough compensation, will agreeably assist in the pursuit of your goals. UBI and automation permits more goals to be pursued, and it is the realization of goals that permits wealth increase in your society. Not the protection of existing wealth or goal monopolies.
Your psychotic hatred of the other crabs in the bucket such that you clutch at them to drag them back down in the bucket is valuing hatred of their freedom more than access to your own. Once out of the bucket, they could help you escape too. Your relative happiness with not being at the absolute floor of the bucket, pales in comparison to the bucket destroying opportunity that a YES vote on the basic income question grants you.
After the YES vote
The significant citizen and taxpayer benefits from UBI already evident can be significantly enhanced.
Switzerland has one of the lowest interest rates (in fact negative interest rates) in the world done primarily for the financial and export sector. 40 or 100 years ago, this might have stimulated the "real" economy, but today the wealth created through automation is concentrated, and this inhibits the pursuit of new goals alluded to in previous section.
ULI (unconditional loan income) is a form of unconditional financial grants that is structured in such a way that central banks can assist the financing of universal income within their current mandates. Central bank participation in the enhancement of Swiss citizen welfare would directly stimulate tax payer benefits even more.
After the YES vote, there will be infighting on how to distribute the taxpayer benefits of UBI. ULI and central bank assistance helps create more taxpayer benefits, and so facilitate compromises.