Monday, November 7, 2022

The invention of truth

This paper proves the existence of God logically... And everyone will agree this is a terrible thing.  A more accurate description of the paper is that it proves a constraint on God, and constraint on the will of God, as a corollary to the axiom: if God exists, then God is good.  Theoretically, this should only make evil people angry, but stubbornness of beliefs has an emotional attachment.

The title is an homage to The invention of lying (movie by Ricky Gervais).  There will be a part 2 with film and culture references, but this paper will try to be more strict/serious.

Blaise Pascal and the economics of God

Pascal's wager is fundamentally that if loyalty to Church (different from loyalty to God) costs very little, and the payoff is potentially eternal reward.  The economics of God definitely exist.  Other rewards from loyalty to Church include feeling hope, experiencing the joy of spiritual fulfillment, overcoming fear of social disapproval for insufficient Church loyalty, and enjoying group community/identity for a group superficially supportive of the general good.  These describe the economics for buyers of Church adherence.

The economic sellers of Church adherence are a hierarchy of Men serving Church interests.  Capturing your soul is a monetizable/asset, while the liabilities of providing ponies from prayer and eternal mansions are shifted to an invisible sky fairy.  The economics of selling Church adherence incentivize scamming where the Church, as an intermediary, replaces/pretends to serve God with service to, or actually aiding, demonic influences of oligarchs and ruling classes.  When you sell your soul/loyalty to the Church, you empower it to Churchsplain your suffering as being caused by a mysterious God's will.  There is massive scamming opportunity for the hierarchy of Men controlling a Church to serve profitable rulership interests at the expense of their adherents.

Pascal's wager risks the small cost of your loyalty/soul for no benefit.  But instead risking the further cost of eternal damnation instead of eternal reward.  Whether or not you are responsible for your own foolishness in adhering to demonic evil, your soul has been pledged, nonetheless to Satan, by the Church brokers.  Not that the existence of a devil is needed to explain evil in our world, but the greatest trick the devil ever pulled is deceiving society into believing that he is God.  The business model of delivering your soul to an evil order is much more profitable than valuing humanist freedom.  There is only money in selling slaves.  No direct money in freeing them.

Media that promotes a nationalist order is a modern and more effective replacement for the Churches' selling of souls to the nationalist order.  Even when left and right perspectives are balanced, and the democratic framework extolled, a nationalist order where things will stay the same is ensured.  Media serves evil, by demonically framing national opinion within evil alternatives.

The proof of God in this paper fully recognizes providing an economic payoff to God.  The payoff of God is providing heaven on earth, low scarcity world with ample easy opportunity for all humans rather than just a heaven on earth for ruling elites, and hell on earth for the rest.  Any eternal  extra planar/dimensional rewards are a bonus cherry only available to those who adhere/support policies that a  good God must want for humans.  There is no need to prove the existence of the bonus cherry prize to prove God's relevance (relevance implies existence).  The God being proven is a supernatural force that guides towards good and against evil actions independently of the human consequence of being caught or the PR value of public acclaim.  The following 4 sections define God in a clear definitive structured-hierarchical-mandate way, whose consistency could not be reconciled with 20000 sentences from scripture.  In the end, God is presented here as a more consistent expression of human love than spiritual hope and joy given to those who abstain from sin, and an economic rationale is proposed to accept this God as the only possible one true God.


Ethics must be in the form of a mandate hierarchy.  The top mandate must be absolute.  The 2nd mandate must be absolute while never violating top mandate, and each subsequent mandates are absolute as well, while subservient to mandates above them.

Truth is such a primordial ethics mandate that God himself must be identical/slave/bound to truth.  If God is not evil, then he must demand truth, and be truth.  If God is evil, or wants us to be evil, then he is not worth respecting.  Any loyalty placed above a loyalty to truth is a loyalty against God, and a necessarily, loyalty to evil.

Implications of common violations of these axioms:

"God blesses our tribe" (no matter what lies/evil our tribe commits is direct corruption of God)

Loyalty to a Church that includes a mandate to deliver souls to demonic lying Conservative/Republican rulers that serve an evil oligarchy is a loyalty against God.

Humanism is maximizing the sum total of all individual humans' happiness, including the sustainable happiness of future humanity.  An act that improves any small/single subset of humanity is humanist as long as it doesn't disenfranchise another human.


Humanism defines Good, and what good God wants for humanity.  Truth/God eternally transcending through generations means Truth/God will still be relevant in future.  Environmentalism is an essential component of human sustainability, but humanism must trump environmentalism as priority.  Humanism must trump tribalism.  Humanism is the 2nd prime loyalty (after truth) to God.  Loyalty above humanism or truth is loyalty to evil.

Individual acts of humanism include  self actualization, employment, consumption, production, kindness, having/raising children, and helping structure the world to be more conducive to human prosperity and sustainability.

Structural/social humanism is a world that provides all of us opportunity to "easily" thrive.  A world/society that supports you in meeting your "goodness quota" of 28 pregnancies with octomom fertility treatments = 224 births, is a humanist world the result of concerted social action to make the world more humanist.  While a 224 children quota is extreme, and difficult to expect sustainability if all women quickly adopted it, a world that is too harsh to consider the effort needed to raise some children is a world that is too harsh, and perhaps lacks the technical progress needed to sustain higher population.  A world that lacks the hope for opportunity that will affect parents and their potential children.

The most demonic anti human acts are manufacturing war to coerce arms sales and profit from food and climate destroying energy scarcity.  Such evil seeks/claims blessing from God, but we/humanity should not tolerate such victimization.

Humanism is the answer to the question "what policy is truly good?"  Tribal rulership striving to diminish others/humanity through economically destructive action/proxy war that even harms their tribe, is an obvious distortion of humanism for tribal rulership gains/power.  The importance of humanism to God is primarily in binding rulerships from evil.  Where Church/Media encourages/unopposes the evil, they participate in the evil.  Tribal enhancement policies are entirelly humanist where they don't depend on opposing tribal diminishment.

If you love God, you must love humanity and society subsets of humanity and its sustainability, because God loves humanity.  God cannot just be concerned with only your narcissist prosperity.  If you already respect humanism,  independently of a faith/certainty of God, then you are already good.  Humanism as the clear definition of good, under God or not, is a basis to provide a clear definition of evil, and actionable opposition to evil.

Freedom is a non-pejorative synonym for selfishness.  The right to choose self-interested behaviour.

Freedom under God is selfishness constrained by truth and not harming other people.  Including not preventing social structure that improves freedom of others.  Those born on 3rd base, 2nd base, or first base, do not deserve additional privileges over those whose lesser opportunities require taking an "at bat".   Those who have seized the opportunity to start on base, need not restrain the opportunities of those at bat to bring them to home/increase their own prosperity.


As good is defined as humanism, neutrality is freedom.  The right to refuse maximal humanist productivity efforts is necessarily humanist, because the alternative is coercing productivity, and the coercion is harm.  Neutrality of freedom under God means that every action in between doing nothing (neutral) and doing good is permitted.

Valid reasons to refuse coercion for good/productivity include an unfair world where evil prevails.  A world structured to threaten you with starvation and cold if you do not find a sufficiently kind master to submit to.  A world that cannot sustain sufficient hope for parenting endeavors.  

Freedom under God prohibits shaming those who are on the neutral-good spectrum for being insufficiently good/humanist.  Behaviour that is respectful of God, is defined as not evil: ie. behaviour on the  neutral-good spectrum.  Equaling/synonymizing freedom and selfishness, and encouraging humanist behaviour through raising the awareness of social and personal benefits of humanist behaviour is the acceptable action for promoting humanism. Condemning/shaming selfishness that imposes no evil on others, is an act of coercion, that cannot be humanist, even if real humanist progress could be achieved through the coercion. 

Financial independence is also a fundamental definition of freedom.  If we took a survey for the question "Would you like to be employed in a function that serves to defraud consumers or investors, or secretly pollute the world killing neighbours or future generations?"  The only other non-demonic reply than "no", is "yes, if the position pays a lot more than non-evil work."  The reason that this is possibly a non evil/demonic answer is that financial desperation makes survival trump God.  The selfish need to survive is an understandable violation of God/humanism.  Even a wealthy individual can depend on the financial assets/income of a business. That greed/dependence requires obtaining sycophantic minions to fulfill the wealthy business owner's dependent financial needs.

Demonism: The advocacy and pursuit of evil  Justifying/implying it as good and necessary.

Indignity/Undignity: Service to evil.  Balanced between:  The freedom to say no, the awareness of harm done to others, and the rewards for doing harm.  Dignity becomes not the lack of indignity, but the pride of doing good.

A root of most evil is undignified sycophancy to organizational hierarchies that do harm.  The lack of individual freedom to say no is necessary for this evil.  Democracy has so far been ineffective in stopping "evil prevails".

Minimizing disorder

Property rights are necessary for prosperity/flourishing.  Constructing and believing violence, theft, fraud, and pollution are wrong and should be structurally deterred is unanimous.  A professional police force serving that deterrence is a viable path to maintaining civil order, and preventing disorder.  Food, healthcare, emergency security are important security too.

Rulerships require masses of "balanced" desperation in order to ensure a supply of soldiers and other slaves to enhance the strength of the rulership.  Democracy has so far been ineffective in limiting rulership evil because the prize of political victory is greater, the greater the rulership power.  Divisive championism (elect me and your special interests will be promoted) is the only basis for political war because political war requires effort and support, and championism can promise payoff.

Corporatism:  The supremacy of business interests.

Capitalism:  The supremacy of the investor class and capital.  Corporatism has significant overlap with investor class interests. 

It is the supremacism of capitalism and corporatism that is evil.  Not the investment and production it funds.  More production and investment is motivated instead through consumerism derived from less oppression. 

God is defined by principled hierarchy of Truth-Humanism-Freedom.  Diminishing the evil inherent to powerful rulership hierarchies is the principal act of devotion to God.  Security cannot be overlooked, including demonic manufactured instability/divisiveness made against God.  Where political battles over rulership control manufactures divisiveness and hate, it in fact manufactures disorder.  

Minimizing disorder, as this final clause of the God mandate hierarchy, is the necessity to significantly weakening current rulership power, without eliminating the peaceful stability of society.  Peaceful harmonious social stability is the goal of society.  Oppressive warmongering/thieving rulerships are not.

Unconditional Income (UI)/Freedom dividends

Also called Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Social Dividends.  UI is social policy consistent with/devotion to God.

UI eliminates poverty and homelessness.  It eliminates crimes of desperation.  UI provides the freedom to say no to underpaid or evil work, and lets those who are eager to say yes to work, to find well paid work easily.  The consumption boost of UI provides more work and more rewards to share between those who provide  and own the work.   Instead of a school to prison pipeline, youth can hope for a bright future.  UI provides family planning optimism, including your children having a future where they will receive over $500k in their lifetimes.  UI provides everyone the ability to afford academic or vocational training, including relieving parents from funding young adulthood.  UI is far more conducive to production output than welfare systems by not rewarding the poor/disabled/old only if they stay poor.

Financial stress amplifies mental health harm and mental deficiencies that amplify harm and abuse to self and others, including harming family and child development.  It drives people to crave outrage media and to limit others' freedom.  Financial stress or constant mental state of outrage at everything, distracts from the evil and misery inflicted on people by rulership, politicians, and oligarchs they serve.  The subservience and devotion to evil is manufactured by a harsh world that people are manipulated into serving.

An annual certain UI reduces the need for personal savings.  Extra spending from the near wealthy means that the very wealthy get richer through their consumption, or good investment opportunities are available to the near rich.  More spending, less savings is awesome for investment environment.  Lower risk for landlords, banks, and other creditors, and lower risk for theft insurance all significantly reduce parasitic pressure  on people from those sectors (who need to be paid more for higher risk).

Freedom dividends are easily affordable, by equalizing business, investment, and work income taxes.  Work income taxes are lowered compared to today by this process, encouraging everyone from investor class to entry level employees to earn more from work.  Funding from program cuts diminishes rulership evil, and false championism of politicians who will be bribed or berated out of fighting too hard to apply the inconsequential band aids  to oppression they falsely champion as a cure.  Funding from carbon taxes accelerates human sustainable survivability transition while still keeping fossil fuels affordable at any tax rate.  (A $10/gallon gasoline tax, with US consumption of oil at 1000 gallons/capita would fund $10k per person/family member in UI/carbon dividends, and by reducing gasoline demand, would bring the pretax cost of gasoline down to $1/gallon.  Saving the average user $3000-$4000 in surplus income.  Huge opportunities to save more by using less gasoline.)

A society that funds social dividends/cash to citizens first over rulership programs/power, provides a perfectly self-adjusting collective and individualist balance between growth/work, leisure, and inflation.  Social dividends allows pragmatism to prefer $2000 additional cash/year to tax payers over $500B in defense budget items.


A sufficiently heavenly paradise is the blue lagoon (film).  The work requirement to hunt and gather for survival is not a burden when resources are ample and sustainable.  The permissionless freedom is heaven.  A mutually beneficial relationship with a compliant and adoring spouse is heavenly and possible too.  But compliant slavery in service to all your needs is also sufficiently heavenly, for you.  Heavenly lifestyles on earth are available for those who can afford to buy compliance and buy/sell permissions.

The joy and hope instilled by hoping devotion to God/Jesus/Mohamed will lead to a low scarcity after life is a permissible hope for additional payoff for the devotion.  God just demands that following/idolizing your Church's promises of afterlife is prioritized below Truth-Humanism-Freedom.

A low scarcity world is easily achieved through technology/automation progress.  Clean renewable energy is the possibility to manufacture unlimited energy.  Industrial policy that makes such energy abundant means cheap energy for society, compared to protecting climate terrorist oligarchies that depend on energy scarcity for profit and power. US rulership manufacturing  Ukraine proxy war against Russia is manufacturing scarcity and climate terrorism.  Denying China technology access is a significant scarcity promoter (and prelude to further calamitous war against China), destroying technology's advance by limiting revenue/production capability.

US rulership power, and their weapons and fossil fuel oligarchy control, is directly terrorizing Americans and the world into a path towards hell on earth scarcity.  Blaming US rulership power for being the worst rulership among all rulerships is the natural answer, because it has the most power, and the most power to restrain its evil in exchange for requesting others' restraint of evil.

Strong absolute US/Global rulerships will turn post-scarcity advances of automation into extermination of the slave/serf classes, using divisiveness to have the slaves exterminate each other.  Automation replaces the need for slaves and their existential lives.  Only democratic ideal power, nominally held  by the slaves, can prevent the masses from elite controlled rulership extermination and hell on earth.  Continued absolute rulership sets a direct inescapable path to Robocop managed ghettoization followed by extermination.

Nationalist/identity hate 

Conservative political support requires manufacturing hatred and enemies.  "The real patriots support a war on sinners and minorities".  Victory is measured in harm achieved and normalized, regardless of (LBJ's) pocket picking costs to the minion zombies.   It is easy to add nationalist hatred points as a layer on other hatred.  The oligarch/elite demonic sponsors of conservatism do so to protect their financial/power empires, prevent innovation, and sell war.

“The national government will maintain and defend the foundations on which the power of our nation rests. It will offer strong protection to Christianity as the very basis of our collective morality. Today Christians stand at the head of our country. We want to fill our culture again with the Christian spirit. We want to burn out all the recent immoral developments in literature, in entertainment, and in the press - in short, we want to burn out the poison of immorality which has entered into our whole life and culture as a result of liberal excess during recent years.” - Adolph Hitler, 1933

Ukraine nationalism has fanatical roots in anti-Soviet identification, morphing now into anti-Russian fanaticism.  The US empire is first a foremost managed by an unelected US weapons marketing team, funded by conservative/nationalist oligarchs profiting from the only way to sell weapons, and supporting both political parties harmonious weapon sales delivering power.  Funding nationalist fanatics to provoke and perpetuate a globally devastating war.  EU members, as US puppets, further allocate their unelected EU representatives on the basis of their devotion to NATO/US loyalty.  Media service to US empire is further disenfranchisement of the world, including the golden billion citizens. 

Nationalist hate is anti-God in that anti-human fanatical strength "deserves" power and rule over disloyal slaves captured within a border.  That this is a useful tool for US empire to sell weapons to other CIS states, or facilitate a path for war on China, is not a humanist God endeavor, and incompatible with a manifest destiny blessed by God.

True Liberalism: The freedom and equal opportunity for all. A centrist value approved by God.

Labourism, Zionism and Feminism

While capitalism and corporatism are categorically evil for their supremacism, oppression, competition/production and innovation stifling, and specifically for its control of rulerships to advance evil war as marketing operations, Labourist supremacism is not the answer.  Higher taxes, rulership program cost cutting, and social dividends is the answer.  Unions may improve the life of their members, but they do so by limiting the number of members.  Unions can also have enough power to gain "house slave" status from regulations/programs that make union membership more appealing to the "field slaves".  An example of this is Unions in NY state blocking universal healthcare for that state.  The freedom of social dividends is better labour empowerment than socialism/unionization's fight against capitalism.

Feminism and Zionism (defined with same parameters as capitalism above) are supremacist movements, not only for going above/beyond equality and social justice pursuits, but controlling the absolute supremacist power of being protected from criticism.  Apartheid, terrorist state, Israel, pursuing a final solution on exterminating Palestinians with bipartisan deep state political control of an approving US condemns criticism as anti-semitic.  Believing every woman's abuse complaints as incapable of lie, or preferring women for job and academic applications is supremacist evil whose criticism is deflected as misogynist.  Capitalism and warmongering murder also have evil speech protections where criticism is dismissed as Communist or paid Russia advocacy.  God does not permit this supremacism.

Oversensitivity/sensitivity laws/structure protects the supremacist powers that has achieved immunity from criticism.  Creating sensitivity safe spaces, and laws to enforce them, privileges those who are permitted sensitivity assertions.  It further empowers disinforming governments to crack down on "misinformation" that criticises them.   While demonic Republican evil serving corporatist oligarchy climate destruction needs to animate misinformation and hate as a populist distraction to destroy America and the planet, their political opposition must champion their own supremacists, while still taking funding from the same or opposing oligarchs.

Diversity as tokenism provides valuable societal/organizational diversity of perspective.  Racist/sexist exclusion of qualified opportunity is evil both in preventing tokenism diversity, or in seeking equality of outcomes, through suppressing the most talented from opportunity.  Academic admissions should be 42% female instead of 60% if an IQ of 115 is a gatekeeper.  Feminist supremacism should not influence academia.  If the top 0.6% (iq of 140) of intellectual talent are to have the opportunity to help humanity the most, then 29M of those 40M are male.  Blocking them from employment opportunity, or forcing hostile/sensitivity work environments on them, harms humanity.  The UBI/high tax model ensures that fortunes that are made either helping or harming humanity are taxed enough to help the rest of humanity/society's opportunities and freedom.  Opportunity means talent is set free to maximize humanism.  Taxes/freedom dividends just ensures that the benefits of humanism are shared, and the talented cheered on.

Corrupt democracy and corrupt liberalism form a basis for justifying warmongering murder for corrupt and evil objectives.  Justifies sycophancy of similarly corrupt allies to evil warmongers.  People are too easily hypnotized in picking a good side in war, ignoring the necessary evil of "the good side" manufacturing/insisting on the war.

Proof that Church and Media serve evil

The product of both Church and Media is the flock it controls.  Delivering fleecings and meat to demons is a more profitable, sustainable organizational model, than delivering freedom and happiness to the flock.  Serving "Satan"/lies to the flock is much more probable organizational mission than Truth or God.  The clear incentive to serve evil while pretending that it is God is the evil being blessed.

Judaism and Church-allied Nationalist hate share the same fundamental evil of  dangling a promise land for the in group, and permitting all evil against the out groups.  It relies on an absurdity of an evil god willing to Champion evil against its human creation because he's adopted a culture/sports team to cheer for, and war is entertaining for him.  God championing your tribe is purely and simply rationalizing your evil by lying that it is good/blessed. 

War is ultimate disorder.  Church and media supporting its manufacturing and legitimacy is evil.  Media, as Church, should have a responsibility to Truth, humanism, and freedom instead of being an agent of rulership power in its destruction.

Truth-Humanism-Freedom as a higher force

Principle because it is principle, is circular.  "Murder is wrong because murder is wrong" is a proof of God.  The circular aspect needs a higher force to validate it.  The alternative escape of God is "Murder is wrong, because that is the right thing to say, and saying so will bind you and protect me, and you better not fall asleep, and if I kill you, please God, protect me from revenge/investigation." is appeal to lowly, unprincipled, social forces to protect manipulative evil lying power to protect the liar without binding them.

The answer to why principle (universal equal binding for equal protection) is important, is that it is important because there is a higher force that makes it important.  The higher force is stronger the more people believe/respect the higher force. The force is omnipotent and eternal. Truth is omniscient.

People tend to want to accept or reject God as a being with full telekinetic control of every atom in the universe.  They are all angry that proof of God as a being is not the claim of this paper.  If God created Gravity, an omnipotent, eternal force that never rests or needs refueling, this is still a supreme being creating a higher force.  Creating the higher force of Truth-Humanism-Freedom, is an eternal omnipotent force, even if like rockets or jumping can escape gravity, lies are an effort that can escape truth.

Proving God as a Being is impossible.  There is a higher force for Truth-Humanism-Freedom. It is a force I, and believe most others, feel despite potential profit motives from lies, coercion, murder, and theft. The existence of the higher force is enough to prove God, even without evidence that God is a being. The force is entirely consistent with God, if he were a being. If faith or absence of faith determines for you that God is or is not a being, it doesn't negate the higher force that exists. Response to guidance prayer from a being or not will still be according to the higher force of Truth-Humanism-Freedom, if there is a God listening. So, understanding the being of God is enhanced by understanding Truth-Humanism-Freedom, and protecting yourself from demons who give you a different understanding.

The proof of God being offered here, is that independently of any supernatural powers of a being-God, or eternal gifts promises, the higher force of Truth-Humanism-Freedom is the true reflection of God's principles.  The higher force exists, but disproving God involves proving a better principled higher force.  A terrible, reprehensible, candidate that currently holds the Church-gatekeeped understanding of God in the US is US-Empire-Manifest-Destiny-ism as God's principle/blessing. Placing it above humanism, and any freedom to escape the rulership's ambitions. Diminishing Russia and China may greatly enhance US rulership power, but also cause massive human economic destruction, including a diminishment in American prosperity through recession and housing crash of higher interest rates.  Americans further risk nuclear weapons attack.  Truth-Humanism-Freedom is about enhancing Americans' prosperity through peaceful honest means that likely involves enhancing global prosperity instead of global destruction.  The principles that permit civilized peace, and better civilized peace once a path to low/post scarcity can be understood, is the human growth/prosperity that God wants for humanity.  God, as a being or as the eternal force of truth, does not want unprincipled tribal supremacy to destroy humanity.  God has already been constructed.  The relevance of the construction of God, completely independent/irrespective of the actual "physical" presence/being, must respect the will of God as if he were a being that wants good for humanity and not evil.

The US Republican party is demonic filth

Subhuman shitstain, Mike Pence, by declaring that Americans have "no freedom from religion" is saying that Americans should be punished for not obeying his Satanic death cult.  It invalidates the freedom OF choosing a non-Satanist death cult as an observance of God.

Demonic anti-human, genocidal American/Human baby suppressing, climate terrorist fossil fuel oligarch extortion supporting shitstain, Tom Cotton,  by denying global warming, and vowing the supremacy of fossil fuel profits and climate destruction for our lifetimes, wants to doom humanity while extorting them to their last breath.  The entire Republican congressional delegation blocking renewable energy expansion is them blocking the nearly limitless energy path that saves the planet, and blocking energy that can displace fossil fuels and so make them cheaper.

If you vote for Republicans in 2022 because of high gas prices or outrage over crime/immigration/trannies, then you will have high gas prices and outrage in 2024.  The oligarchs that enslave you will keep funding your enslavement.  There is no economic reason to invest in more fossil fuel development if its uses are rapidly dwindling.  There is only economic incentive to maximize extortion, while whining in order to support an extremist evil oppressive party who will provide subsidies for more oligarch and capitalist extortion.

Excommunicating, ostracisizing, and demonizing the Republican and conservative parties that share their evil, such that they are exterminated from public policy relevance, is needed in order for constructive political/social reform.  Nationalist/Religious hate groups allied with Republicans actively demonize hatred of liberals.  It is the wrong response to be defensive or dismissive of such attacks.  It is also the wrong response to let "Republicans own the construction of God"

Proof of God conclusions and attacks

Good must be defined as social/humanist outcomes, and good is only possible with freedom.  Deceiving the slaves/oppressed into an illusion of freedom is not freedom.  Freedom/abundance of opportunity motivates good/production.  Oppression/scarcity motivates evil and rebellious disorder. Where strength trumps Truth/God for self justification, then all murder/theft/lies/evil is justified merely by winning, including the disorder of harming the current winners. 

God focused on social/humanist sustainability, progress, and happiness is consistent with an eternal god for all.   An individualist/sin based God is a manipulation technique to bind the sheeple from murder and theft, while protecting the rulership (without binding them).  The only necessarily evil sin is wrath.  The other sins are falsely used as slavery production justifications.  Mother Theresa may have been motivated to do good by the vanity and pride of canonization, envying the other saints.  An athlete/business engaging in fair competition, will train/work hard with greed to win all competitions, perhaps to fund their gluttonous ice cream addiction and lustful dating ambitions.  Sloth/envy allows us to choose consuming others work/entertainment while further benefiting them by not competing against them.  Where Church can successfully market religion as an individual battle against sin, they can only attract psychotics who despise their nature and seek absolution by signing up.

An attack (Dostoyevsky + evil) on freedom is that most people have a need to follow and serve.  Following/serving good is a more attractive option than following/serving evil.  Evil justifying the deception of their minions as "natural dependence" is simple evil. For anyone who prefers obedience/service, the freedom of others enhances the value of your service to those needing to buy your loyalty.  Similarly, "meaning of life requires suffering" justification for suffering would be greatly enhanced through the maximum disorder of deconstructing property rights, and 99% income tax rates.  Protecting rulership elites from suffering is inconsistent with "suffering as a principle".

Instead of sustainable humanism, it would be a possible ethical position to democratically destroy civilization in say 2100.  It would satisfy truth and democratic will to inflict anti-sustainable despair on the future birth slaves.  Despaired disordered hellscape would be likely well before 2100, but after most older voters life expectancy.  While there is an ethical basis for choosing this only with honesty, it is still evil, and clearly against God.  Anti-sustainable evil of energy and other scarcity and march to war with Russia and China will be done with lies instead.

A probable truth is that slavery can produce more economic/birth output than freedom.  Total human output increased, but for the benefit of a few.  Calling slavery consistent with God is consistent with all disorderly chaos involved in counter-rebellious insurrection to enslave/eat the oligarchs.  Only principle is consistent with God.  Slavers claiming God to bless their ownership/position/victory because they are special individuals worthy of ruling invites the same unprincipled claim by whoever topples them.  Should God be a fate that punishes you with pregnancy and economic suffering of child obligation for lust?, or should God be a force that promotes society to want, including the sustainable economic empowerment of people, to have children as the greatest expression of individual and humanist wealth?

Constructions include marriage, rulership legitimacy and fiat money.  God exists as a Truth-Humanist-Freedom hierarchy.  Religion constructs God independently of his nature/existence.  Where religion allies with evil in making a construction of God that has loyalties higher than Truth/Humanism/Freedom, those religions' legitimacy must be deconstructed/destroyed.  Where this paper is a messiah/2nd coming of Jesus/Mohamed, an expectation that the 2nd coming would congratulate all the religious on their perfectness, perhaps with the only advice to buy more idolatrish crucifixes and rosaries,  was not reasonable.

If God does not materially exist in any dimension, constructing it still happens.  A construction of Truth-Humanism-Freedom is the rational economic construction that brings abundance and prosperity to earth.  Atheists and Agnostics should participate in the construction rather than throw away their democractic right to influence the construction.  Letting only evil vote is an evil corruption of democracy.  For those who love Jesus, a Truth-Humanist-Freedom-Messiah hierarchy is the only valid possible interpretation of the Messiah's speech, and only path to heavenly eternal paradise is to subjugate your adoration of the Messiah to its appropriate priority.  An earthly future heaven of abundance is an earthly hope to have children, and if reincarnation is an adventure option within heaven's kingdom, then a more pleasant eternity of more abundant options.

Economic rationality is truth.  It is not an imposition of freedom to impose economic rational solutions that benefit the whole of society even if individuals are too stupid or possessed to understand their benefit.  Under veil of ignorance, "thou shall not kill" binding you and everyone else, protects you from everyone else, saving you ultimate cost in that protection while binding a small cost in your freedom to do evil.  Freedom dividends paid from income taxes, binds a cost on those who freely choose/achieve success, provides a net transfer to those who are less successful-- a greater benefit to them than the cost to the successful -- while enhancing the success of the successful as money will flow back up to the working/rich as the poor spend all of their money/wealth.  UI further constrains rulership discretionary power/evil/spending.  It is not an imposition on freedom to impose a construction of true God that leads to prosperity, abundance, freedom and harmony.

Demonism exists independently of God.  It is the nature of evil to use all tools to enhance their evil including distorting God to bind their victims.  Accepting your suffering as fate while searching for meaning in/pleading your suffering to an invisible sky fairy, is the evil behind your suffering controlling you.  It is acceptance of demonism.  Demonizing demons is as important as accepting God to limit/eliminate the prevailing of evil.  If a construction of God can never satisfy those who refuse to consider God, demonism as defined here, exists pervasively without need for any construction.  Opposing demonism, or appreciating that it is unhelpful/unwelcome, is identical to accepting God.

Path for society's freedom and elevation of God

Lobbying Churches to accept God as Truth/Humanist sustainability/Freedom/insert-here hierarchy will divide them into God and demonic agents of rulership evil.  Excommunicating Republicans who corrupt God will disempower corporatist/capitalist oligarchy from oppression's legitimacy.  Judaism can be made inclusive of humanity in quest for promiseland.  Islam can delegitimize their rulership's power and their rulership's alliance/tolerance for US/Zionist empire.

Media needs to respect Truth more and US empire less.  Needs to avoid humanizing and platforming Republicans.  Needs to highlight the economic destruction caused by Ukraine proxy war on Russia.  Needs to highlight pragmatic needs of citizens over the rulership's ambitions and control.  There is a natural media self interest to promote citizens freedom and prosperity through UI, because advertising demand would shoot up as business would need to inform a broadly wealthy consumer base how to give them their money.  Media that needs sponsors to oppress citizens to their rulership masters is vulnerable to sponsors not wanting to be associated with evil.

Misinformation handling is difficult.  Trump lied/lies constantly.  So do all governments.  Well funded political misinformation is programmed to reach/outrage the right bubbles/filters.  Programming people is "a science".  While much misinformation is disorderly, divisive, and purely intended to destroy society, the empire's disinformation is theft and oppression.  Empire/rulership subservient media determining misinformation can be disinformation.  Censorship is an inappropriate means to deal with misinformation, because the censorship can be disinformation.  Accusing misinformation of being misinformation is the best/only free path.  God (truth/humanism/freedom) and the intolerance for demonism can help.

Tech companies, and the vast majority of business and consumers, and all labour all benefit far more from widespread prosperity than from slavery or empire.  Very few non-government/church institutions require desperation to prosper.  Tech companies, specifically, were born in a culture of "don't do evil", yet have become arms of the US empire.  Established tech companies may want to gatekeep innovation, capturing employees who have no other prosperous future than to submit to them, and so oppose UBI on that basis.  At the same time, UBI means massive sales growth and massive leverage opportunities of existing and growable talent pool, whose mothers will always be proud if their child is hired by tech giants.  US Empire's desperation war on China is a massive limitation to global progress and innovation, amplifying the global economic destruction of the proxy war on Russia.  It is critical for everyone who doesn't want poverty, collapse, violence and death to disempower rulerships before they cause collapse as a means to maintain empire.

The Forward Party, led by Andrew Yang (supporter of UBI, but lacking the full passion/understanding that UBI deserves), has the very sensible immediate priority of reducing divisiveness through election reform and unified political primaries.  While having more moderate candidates lowers the fear of fascism, and then lowers the left's need to rally behind the most neo-con warmonger candidate in order to achieve victory over domestic hate and fascism, moderate candidates can still bring problems.  Moderate republicans will still vote for climate destruction and energy scarcity.  Moderate politicians in general are more likely to support the Empire's strength and only listen to weapons manufacturers and capitalist supremacy lobbyists for policy ideas.  The centrism of populist/humanist UBI is not the same as the centrism of Oligarch serving empire strength, and moderate politicians still need a massive war chest to win.  If the Forward party adopted God, it would be very forward of them.

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Bitcoin is a better investment than bonds or gold -- new charts

 Quicker post than usual confirming my early 2018 post on the promise of bitcoin.  The title was confusing because unsophisticated readers would understand only 1  bitcoin vs 1 once of gold, though "worth more" was a reference to the value of all of the bitcoin compared to all of the gold.  All of the major arguments for bitcoin were made then and are still valid today.

The major thesis of this paper is that for the next 70 years, bitcoin value will at least double every 4 years.  This schedule is premised on the mining reward adjustment (halving) that takes place every 4 years, that value equals utility and technology and adoption increases utility and value.

Charts and graphs

The charts in this paper are calculated from daily data provided at from August 20,2010 to March 28, 2021.  A price of $0.01/btc is added for August 19.  Most of their data points are separated by 3 days.  The highest price in their data is $57,665 on March 12, and last price in data, $55863.

Bitcoin Price History

The x axis ticks in these charts each represent 1 year from the start of the data.  The x axis numbers are days since day 0 (august 19, 2010).  Y axis, price in USD.

Number of days it took bitcoin to increase 900% in price

Not apparent due to scale of first chart, but bitcoin price increased by 10x (900%) very quickly in the first 2 and half years.  Averaging under 1 year from any date.  In 2013, it would take up to 4 years before a 10x price increase from some dates.  This fell back under 1 year for some dates in 2017 and 2020.  The data has been stripped of dates where a 10x price increase has yet to occur.  The 2017 high will require a $192,000 bitcoin price in order to hit its 10x increase on that date.  The very straight line segments towards the right of the graph indicate interpolation between missing (yet to be achieved) and real 10x achievements.

The sawtooth pattern in the graph underlies the exuberant/fast value increases that take place every 4 years mostly as a result of the mining reward adjustment. Bitcoin's history of volatile crashes is publicized more than the point that it has grown 10x+ over any 4 year period.  Better shown in this next chart.

4 year bitcoin return on investment (Price as multiple of 4 year earlier price) -start date of spring 2015

Data earlier than 2015 is omitted because it includes returns over 100000x.  The 2017 peak was only a 20x return over 2013 peak that occurred around the same date.  There were higher 4 year returns earlier in 2017.  March 28,2021 has a 4 year return of 60x.  The 2 occasions where the 4 year return on bitcoin was "only" 10x/900%, were short lived, and precipitated strong/steep rallies.  These returns exclude dividend/airdrop/forks.

If every other investment is stupid, then 50% of global wealth should move to bitcoin, and $8m/btc reflected 50% of 2017 global wealth.  There is no visible end to central bank action attempting to inflate global wealth.  The rise of bitcoin does not detract from global wealth, and in fact adds to it.

At $100k/btc, bitcoin will approximate gold's total private investment value.  Gold will always have poorer transactibility, security and transportability.  Gold's supply increases as its price does:  Miners get more active, and the "cash for gold" pawn shops recycle the jewelry market.

Government Bonds, in the US, will provide a 17% return over 10 years if everything goes perfectly.  Less in Europe.   There are only 2 reasons to buy 10 year bonds.  Either confidence that rates will go down even more, or a simplistic intent to hold the full 10 years. It is unlikely for government bonds today to have returns higher than inflation, and unlikely that rates go down further.

 It is possible to earn interest on bitcoin that is higher than government bond interest, with or without locking a deposit, as well as inherently being protected from inflation, and as well as having the conservative expectation of 400%/5x gains over 10 years.

Stocks are a stupid investment if they are valued for perfection.  Facebook can turn into My Space.  Apple can turn into Blackberry/Nokia, Microsoft can turn into IBM.... over a 10 year period, or at the end of that 10 year period, concern that it may come true in the next 10 years.  Compared to bitcoin there is always more uncertainty around companies ability to 5x in value over 10 years, and as an outsider, you are at a huge disadvantage compared to self dealing insiders and the wealth able to control them.

Price variability/volatility of an investment does not imply speculation.  Hoping a stupid investment goes up in the shorter term is speculation.

Projected bitcoin high price by year (in thousands) as function of 2021 high
Past price appreciation has been much faster than these projections, and its reasonable to hope that price appreciation exceeds this pace in short term (first few olympic periods).  But this pace is sufficient to invalidate the attractiveness of alternatives, and the real ultimate limit is global wealth % based.

Other crypto currencies
Several alternative crypto currencies provide value through different utility, but the utlimate utility is being able to send large transactions securely.  The major fault typical of newer projects is centralization and self dealing of their tokens.  Proof of stake blockchains are further self dealing to initial card holders, validating the blockchain without effort or "external" cost.  Delegated proof of stake further offers mining rewards using other people's money, and may open cheating vectors.  Reputable project directors are a vector for geopolitical control and corruption of projects. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has significant external validation cost, that guarantee security and a price floor, and no geopolitical control vectors.

The stable value of alternative crypto is relative to bitcoin.  Many projects are worth using due to their utility, especially DEFI disintermediation of financial services, but a relatively small allocation is advised.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Democratic strategy for Senate control and beyond

 The 2 senate runoff elections to be held Jan 5 2021 in Georgia will determine senate majority.  Strategy and policy shifts can keep that majority through 2024 and beyond.  Yes, freedom/social dividends is part of the strategy/policy mix, but this will discussed towards the end.

Deprograming the electorate as to the Republican party's anti-American evil

By rallying behind a dictator who is at least a little more pro fascist than anti fascist, they endanger republican voters for a future where a different narcissist threatens to bankrupt and invade their counties.

The republican backed Trump sabotaging of healthcare through the Supreme court this week is a tactic to destroy healthcare by blaming the court.  In 2018, republicans had majorities that permitted them to destroy healthcare through congress, but knew that doing so would lose even more congressional seats than through the cowardly court challenge process.  There is no ACA replacement plan other than a dumpster fire that requires emergency fixes.

The reason that economic collapse always follows thieving republican tax cuts for the rich, is that the tax cuts are accompanied by huge deficit increases, and those deficit increases juice up economic metrics unsustainably.  The goal is always to just keep the pyramid scheme going until the next election.  The anti-American unsustainable short termism is also exemplified by denial of covid reality, leveraging of covid response to attack blue states, opportunistically amplifying divisiveness resulting from unfair police executions of black men, destroying the climate/environment by deregulating dead ender climate terrorist fossil fuel industries in yet more short term benefits at the cost of future sustainability and energy productivity/relevance, and future agricultural and coastal property values.

Deprogramming strategy has to be a very forceful pushback on accusations of communism on an issue by issue basis.  The most moderate democrats support making America slightly less oppressive, and the most demonized democrats are not communists about to surrender Miami to Fidel Castro.  All republican politicans support making America more oppressive.  Deprogramming has to emphasize the evil of Trump support.

I will be writing a very difficult deprogramming focused article soon

Voter suppression and republican cheating must be top issue in GA senate races

Behind every effort to make voting easier or harder, republicans are on the side of making it harder.

GA senate candidates have called on republican secretary of state to resign because he failed to cheat enough.

Trump crony appointment of Dejoy to head USPS, and his attempt to sabotage mail voting through scrapping processing equipment while regularly attending republican campaign strategy meetings is clear election cheating attempt. 

DOJ head Barr ordering federal prosecutors to fish for partisan voter fraud is an abuse of government for clear election cheating.

Republican court packing with political operative hacks, especially Kavanaugh and Barret, is clear attempt to suppress voting and validate cheating.

For all Americans and Georgians, a fair election system is necessary to prevent dictatorships by either party.  A 50/50 senate will ensure that election fairness is promoted for the future.  With election fairness, republican and democrat candidates can focus on improving the country rather than destroying it for personal pillaging benefits.

For democrats specifically, this may be the last election with 8 hour voting lines.  There may be relief from oppressive ID requirements, and other voter throughput reducing measures (that lengthen lines and reduce maximum votes) as well.  For the country, a democratic majority will mean sane/less corrupt republican candidates in the future.

Extreme economic development opportunity for GA

For the bootlicking brownshirt cowardice wing of the republican party, they should consider simply switching boots.  With democrat senate control, they will be able to support all GA economic development/enhancement pork for the state of GA that is designed to keep GA blue.  The Warnock seat is only for 2 years, and GA economic support will flow quickly.  If the corrupt evil republican candidates win, they will simply join the obstruction that prevents GA from achieving economic growth that might support Democrat re-elections at the national level. 

The Democratic party wants to help GA grow and prosper.  Republicans want to destroy it, as a desperate propaganda ploy that "Democrats failed to prevent the destruction".

I will discuss the economic disaster that is the Vogtle nuclear boondogle further down, but federal assistance is likely on the table to bail out GA rate/tax payers for the disaster.  But only if Dems win senate.

With 80% of the US, according to Ipsos poll, understanding that Biden has won the presidency, not only does the corrupt shitstain republican candidates endorsement of postelection Trump and call for GA republicans who did not cheat enough to resign, place an 80% democrat vote share as a ceiling, the remaining 20% of conspiracy-desperate voters has a large share of bootlickers who are still instinctive enough to not pick shitstained loser boots.

Moderate healthcare improvements

Republicans want to make health insurance more oppressive and less reliable:  make it easier for coverage to be dropped when you get sick.

Biden's plan for reducing the age of eligibility for medicare to 60 is a huge benefit to everyone.  It reduces insurance premiums for everyone else, and insurance industry profits, because those over 60 are more likely to incur high healthcare costs, and throwing them out of the insurance pool, reduces insurance payouts that may trickle down to premium payers.

The public option insurance scheme is not as smart.  While it is a trojan horse to attempt to slowly get to single payer healthcare, and in the short term will protect private insurance profits, it does so by moving sick people onto public option and healthy people onto cheaper private plans.  But everyone is paying high taxes to support both public and private insurance rate payers and profits.  The problem with the end game of deciding between single payer and extortion healthcare is the evil propaganda that "private insurance appears much cheaper" (when it only insures healthy people).

There is a public option that is much more moderate than Bernie's vision for a Platinum M4A.  Call it Bronze M4A, with options for platinum supplemental coverage that may keep private insurers viable.  

M4A is obviously better for 3 simple reasons:

1. Cheaper overall.  Healthcare costs per person go down on average.

2. You don't need to worry about insurance weaseling out of paying.  You could buy enhanced coverage on top of M4A

3. The only people who love their insurance are those who get it for "free" from work.  An M4A bill could ensure that the costs to employee/employer of providing healthcare are transferred as extra cash to salaries/wages.

M4A means more money in Americans pockets (less insurance+ out of pocket costs > tax increases) with more trustworthy/reliable health insurance.  There's the option of supplemental coverage to match any existing coverage options.  The option to use extra cash for anything.

This is a better option than a public option because it is far less expensive to tax payers, and platinum supplemental coverage providers need to make premiums attractive if the coverage does not seem essential.

Even if "moderate dems" want to protect the expensive private health model with small bandaid improvements, they can still angrily call out the fascist disinformation who want to make healthcare more exploitative.  

Campaign should be less about defending a specific form of improvement to healthcare access and costs, and more about attacking the depravity of republicans for American hating attempts at destroying healthcare access.  If GA republican shitstain candidates win, they will obstruct any and all attempts to improve healthcare.

Single payer (tax funded) healthcare, even at the minimal bronze level, significantly improves the economic dynamism of America.  People can start businesses without healthcare worries.  They can join smaller businesses as employees without burdening those businesses with the cost and energy to manage employee healthcare, not placing smaller business at a disadvantage for talent acquisition.  Tax funded healthcare also benefits (higher employer premium cost) polluting/hazardous/big businesses with international competition.

Climate change and energy policy

GA does not have fossil fuel interests and so no valid loyalty to expensive legacy energy.  Adopting cheaper renewables before its neighbor states will permit GA to colonize its neighbors' energy needs under a carbon tax with dividend energy policy model, which will eventually become necessary as renewable energy penetration eventually stalls.

The Biden climate plan is good in its generous budgetary allocation.  There are several inefficiencies included in the plan:  All nuclear research/development funding is 100% waste with zero potential to assist energy transition, not only for the absurdly exepensive and uncompetitive energy, but the 10-15 year delay in commissioning a reactor that means either zero progress on renewables during the wait, or immediate bankruptcy for the useless energy generator upon commissioning.  Building efficiency retrofits are poor use of funds because new renewable energy financing provides orders of magnitude more emission reductions per dollar invested.  Efficiency/self power generation standards for new construction are exceptionally good policy.  Solar integrated during building construction is as cheap as utility scale projects.

The rapid (2030ish) path to 95%+ clean energy is through a large amount of cheap renewables sufficient to meet every day's electricity needs, a small amount of batteries to buffer renewable energy into a baseload-like service, and hydrogen infrastructure that takes the surplus energy produced on most days to deliver reliable on demand energy to transportation, industry and buildings.  A carbon tax and dividend (all pollution tax revenue collected redistributed as an equal cash payment to residents) is key to rapid adoption of clean energy and transportation because without a carbon tax, oil and gas prices go towards 0, and low cost climate destroying energy helps counterbalance any climate protecting energy adoption.  A carbon tax centered climate policy is one that achieves progress with economic dynamism and with minimal centralized government expense.  It is the dead ender climate terrorists who pay through loss of asset value.  It is easy to transfer climate policy to other jurisdictions whose cooperation is essential when carbon taxes are the central means of emission reduction.

The republican candidates for GA senate are beholden to national republican party for funding their corruption.  That republican party in turn is beholden to climate terrorist dead ender energy interests.  Loyalty to RNC is incompatible with respect for GA citizens need for agricultural and coastal property sustainability and incompatible with GA energy progress including the potential with a carbon tax for Vogtle to provide marginally competitive energy as an attractive export to neighbors.

The breakeven amount of additional money to throw into the Vogtle 1GW nuclear money pit for its completion is $3B.  With the same amount 3 GW of solar could be deployed with enough left over for a battery buffer that turns that solar into a baseload power source.  The future decommissioning costs of Vogtle are not included, but would increase the alternative battery buffer size.  3GW of solar could be deployed in 1 year.  Whether Vogtle is abandoned or not, republican responsibility for this continued ruinous theft, will harm GA forever.  The Democrat GA senate candidates are the only ones who can ensure that the nuclear energy nightmare is not ever imposed elsewhere in America.  The enslavement of white and black Georgians must be liberated from republican graft, or at least given a strongly worded reprimand.

Genuine unity possible with Democrat Senate win

Andrew Yang is in GA campaigning for Democrat senate candidates, and except for mistaken nuclear energy advocacy and a late campaign switch to unproductive public option healthcare, has a centrist, math focused unifying policies to achieve progressive outcomes without invoking culture war issues.

AY is renown for advocating for covid stimulus/freedom dividends.  Both are unconditional cash grants given to citizens.  Covid stimulus has been obstructed by Republican controlled senate.

Freedom/covid dividends are great for rich people.  It permits landlords and banks to collect housing payments.  Permits Businesses to have more customers to sell to, and employ people to take those customers' money.

Freedom dividends are great for lower classes generally because it permits the economic dynamism of entrepreneurship and education and mobility, and does so through individual centered/empowered means.

What is underappreciated is the potential for freedom dividends to end the institutional racism that leads to aggressive policing of black men.  Freedom dividends leads to lower crime rates because criminal activity is risky and desperate, and UBI ends desperation.  A chickenshit police uses qualified immunity and fear to shoot 10 times and ask questions later.  Looking like a criminal is the pretext for aggressive policing, and if crime is rare, then no one looks like a criminal.  While most people fear a "defund the police" message, they do so from a perspective of uncertainty rather than hatred.  Many people can be convinced to not hate, I'd hope, and it's easier when you can park your lambo in every neighborhood, and 4 police per 100 residents is a lot more (tax) expensive than 2 per 100.

Freedom dividends are also the only potential general economic/pandemic relief that can be fairly self funded.  UBI is simply a refundable tax credit that is offset by tax rate increases, but it is only the highest income earners that pay more in taxes than they receive in UBI, but these same people also earn more from the economic growth provided by UBI.

The most unifying aspect of freedom dividends is that no one is selected by discretionary power hierarchy as deserving more than anyone else.

Some proposals here are different than the official Democratic platform

Policy and bills will be set in congress.  The existence and consideration of better and more progressive alternatives to improve America than the President's choice offers more paths to progress, and different coalitions to progress.  A tied majority democrat senate permits compromises with republicans where such compromise provides greater value in achieving progressive goals.  With a republican senate majority only obstruction and turning America into the biggest dumpster fire possible will be pursued.  Dumpster fire extinguisher 2024 is their new platform.

Campaigning both to the left and center (center does not mean towards anti American republicans) while hinting/pretending that GA focused economic development is compatible with something some democrat has proposed is a winning campaign platform.  Pragmatic/bootlicker republicans will understand that 2 and 4 year prosperity for GA depends on a democratic senate majority.

Insulting the disgrace of the personally corrupt insider trading RNC loyal shitstain candidates must be emphasized over defending Democrat policies.  The shitstains only have Trump/RNC loyalty as policy positions, and Trump only believes in dumpster fire.  Georgians deserve better than a dumpster fire, and the rest of the country will be very grateful if they choose prosperity by electing both Democratic Senate candidates.

To moderate democrat politicians who feel they lost because opponents called them or Joe/Bernie/AOC anti-police commies, they should have pushed back against the lying, America hating, pillaging oligarch, fascists, by calling them nazis.  As Sean Connery said "Its the Chicago way".  Sure you end up having to backtrack on whether they meet the exact definition of nazis, but that can be done while underlining their lying, their exploitative hatred of Americans and their health, their support for oligarch pillaging the economy, their support for police brutality, and their support for an unconstitutional dictator led dumpster fire.  "Sure, they seem supportive of a zionist agenda.  The reason they deserve to be called nazis is entirely due to their unfair accusations of communism and socialism."  The more moderate the democratic candidate, the more angry they should be about opponent lies against them and the party.  Joe Biden can take the scoffing high road dismissive approach to the mud slinging, but house candidates especially need more fire, including the most moderate ones.  Fire can include both positioning different from AOC, but strongly defending unfair attacks on AOC.

Beyond the GA senate runoff election

Iowa is apparently supportive of being sacrificial pawns in China trade wars to sacrifice their farmers for coastal financial and tech empires access to China markets.  Compared to 2018 governor race, Iowa went an extra 5 points to republicans.  Iowa voters should be shamed into redemption for such support.  The bootlickers only understand which boot is the correct choice.  Any republican candidate who echoes Trump loyalties should be attacked for anti American/Iowan values.  It is local candidates who should show the disparity in federal investment between counties that support Democrats and those who hate America.  The same strategy will get gains in Nebraska and Kansas.

Democrats have a reputation for walking a line between promises of progress and deliverables on progress.  In this election, some black celebrities and leftists implied that since Obama failed to end racism, a vote for the Trump dumpster fire was encouraged.

Once upon a time, the republican party used to stand for economic dynamism.  By including progressive policies implemented through dynamism rather than centralized supervision (M4A is included as a dynamic solution to healthcare because it frees people and business from needless financial oppression, dependence (on employer), and management by business of health coverage), the democratic party can expand its appeal, while potentially delaying progress if that is their motive, but key to power, further placing the republican party as a destructive untrustworthy dumpster fire only obstructionists. 

Thursday, April 16, 2020

R0 - R naught is not a useful basis for viral spreading or econopolitical decision making

R0 measures the number of people one infected person will infect.  It is somewhat useful from a macro scale ruler and health care empire decision making, including social policy that can hope to reduce R0.  The health care empire's objectives are not in complete alignment with society or the individual, as they will bias decisions towards the health care empire's profits/power/safety.

This paper will first explore a micro virology model, and then discuss economic management.  The most important contribution of this paper is consideration of social apathy and antipathy as a viral spreading factor, and as usual for my papers, UBI is a central component of the solution, though mainly the context of social antipathy is being considered.

A micro viral spreading model
Macro viral models are best represented by summing over micro (individuallistic) models.  The summation can be simplified with averages and distribution of individuals (micro models).  This model measures virus concentrations in an individual as the only factor in health and spreading outcomes.

  • X: Threshold of virus below there is any outgoing infectious spread.  If no further incoming infectious load, it is likely that immune response will bring virus level to 0.
  • Y: Threshold below which there are no symptoms.  
  • Z: Threshold below which symptoms are mild enough to not seek medical (doctor) advice, or where general immune boosting activities (sleep, rest, vitamins, no further virus exposure) can hope to cause recovery. 
  • H:  Threshold below which hospitalization is not necessary/advised/sufficiently helpful.  The healthcare empire may subdivide these thresholds into further ICU, and ventilator therapy thresholds.  The necessary rationing/demand of healthcare further sets the "advised" component of this threshold.
  • D:  Threshold below which patient is still alive, or has hopeful prognosis.  Prognosis is relevant relative to healthcare availability factors.
This virus model is similar to radiation exposure models/limits.

Social apathy:  means general narcissism that shows little concern for others, especially those outside family circle.  Both X and Y thresholds have the same impact on the self.  Y, or the risk of possibly having Y status, makes no difference to the social-apath's behaviour.  Seeking information reinforcing that any spread of the pandemic will affect the self below the Z threshold, is the social-apath's nature, and only external shame/pressure can pressure the social-apath's behaviour within the Y and Z thresholds.

Social antipathy: is the belief that society deserves harm as a result of the oppression and misery inflicted upon the individual by society (structurally) and government.  For countries outside of the US, a cheap minimization of sociopathy is to blame the US for difficulties.  For the US, the only historical policy has been, to paraphrase the song "fortunate son", more cannons will be pointed at you until social antipathy is relieved.  UBI is the most important social cohesion policy tool.  Too much policy relies on favouritism instead.

Sociopathic levels within a society can explain the different rates of spread of a virus.  Respect for, and a lack of hatred for, others can enhance participation to containment and social norms.  Asia may have lower sociopathic levels than the rest of the world.

The line between apathy and antipathy is the one between inconsideration and motivated disrespect.

Is it safe to lick the airport bathroom door?
The viral dosage you will get from touching or licking an airport bathroom door, depends on the amount of breathing, coughing, sneezing, touching of the door since its last disinfection, as well as whether the other people interacting with the door were infected or not.  To estimate the infection dosage deposited by those people, you can consider where they (recent flights) are from,  each person's "social index" (how often they share breath and surfaces with other people), and their "paranoia/self/social preservation index" (how often they wash hands and track/avoid potential dosage transmission.  NY and LA departure bathroom doors may have higher risk than Nebraska departure bathrooms.  The "may qualifier"  is there because NY residents who have a higher presumption of infection may also have a higher paranoia index that makes them have a lower "transmissionable exchange" rate.

Moving away from R0 relevance
R0 is dependent upon social interaction and paranoia indexes.  The proposed "Bayesian model" informs social and individual policy.  The medical and biological community need to calculate the viral dose that is expelled and impelled as a result of all relevant actions and conditions.

Herd and individual immunity
Opening a window, or going outside away from people results in the most minimal imported viral dosage.  Opening a window may even improve the indoor air quality/viral saturation such that viral dosage is reduced for those spending significant time indoors.  For nearly everyone, these activities are certain to keep viral load below threshold X, and produce some antibodies.

The alternative of being bubble people for 14 or 30 days will result in fewer/no antibodies, and greater risk to those individuals after the bubble is escaped.

Any outside social interaction will have a lower breath/cough exchange rate than indoor interaction. 

Outdoor construction/shared touching activities can be made safe with gloves and masks and portable sanitation equipment (hand cleansers in a bottle separate from hand sanitizer).  The combination of gloves and masks makes touching one's own face (with glove) unlikely.

Short shopping excursions or other low exposure activities followed by 2-3 days of isolation and rest is likely to result in antibody production while remaining below the X threshold and raising individual's X thresholds.  While the X threshold is defined as the virus load that results in no shedding/expelling of virus, it can also be considered to be a viral shedding rate that is of no threat to cause others to exceed their X level.

This advice contradicts health care empire ambitions of providing immunity through vaccines.  But without a vaccine, variolation has historical success, and may be a free innoculation method with model guidance.

The power of testing
Testing anyone who is concerned they might have the virus with quick results has significant benefits.
It expands those who are below Y and Z thresholds of virus load from concerned status to certain status.  Those certain of having the virus can be convinced to isolate and rest, and use therapeutics with higher success chance (because early in progress of disease) than if they do not know they have the virus.  Testing removes high virus shedders from social interaction.

Social antipaths vs social apaths may care less about testing or their infectious status.  But even they can be convinced that isolated rest and other treatments will help them.  This is easier if testing and treatment is free to them, and if isolation itself doesn't threaten their survival (through lost income), and so UBI as well as "free" healthcare both improve compliance with advised reaction to test results.

But, another critical benefit of testing is "forced" quarantine.  Can support the quarantined with free delivered food, thermometers, and possibly home entertainment services of their choice.  The cost is minimal, but lower community spread benefits immense.  Simpler support service for the quarantined is an increased UBI amount.

Reopening non essential parts of economy
An important consideration for stores and offices is indoor air quality and air exchange rates.  Air exchange designs balance energy efficiency with air quality in normal-non-pandemic times.  Open windows or filtering systems/upgrades can be helpful in reducing virus concentrations in air.

Stores and offices opening for 1-2 days per week (not all places the same day) at fractional capacity would allow for employee rest periods that can hope to manage employee exposure to below their X threshold.  

This also reduces pressure on transit and nearby food support restaurants/services.

Priority for outdoor economic/social activities, especially for summer, is important.  Closing off car traffic for street festivals every weekend, and/or weekday, with pop ups in front of every retail/restaurant location with limited indoor capacity use.  Heavy increase in food cart licensing.  Public hand sanitizing dispensers.

Renewable energy projects would be a good outdoor employment, or personal home renovation work, opportunity.

Unemployment benefits are economically stupid
Unemployment and welfare benefits are stupid because they incur a 50% income surtax on earnings as one of the many conditions for those benefits.  So, these benefits pay people to refuse work.

UBI, cash not conditional upon income, is bonus pay to essential workers, does not depend on an overloaded application denial process, does not favour only the conditionally deserving, and most importantly does not prevent a partial/part-time reopening of the economy.

Every corporate subsidy as pandemic response is theft from citizenry
Every program, whether pandemic response driven or not, that is not UBI is evil favrouritism.  Bailing out the rich will not create investment in your country.  Only a healthy consumer base will.  Bailouts aimed at employment subsidies are bailouts for the rich because it increases the dependence of employees on those employers.  Society and the economy is better off if those employees are free to pursue useful work opportunities, and the freedom is likely to lead to better re-employment offers when their original work is needed again.  Creating special classes of people, whose work is already the most prone to cutbacks during recessions, to receive tax payer funded incomes close to their past incomes, while others struggle, or are merely forced to bear the future tax/debt burden of these bailouts, is equally misplaced favouritism to ensuring the rich lose as little as possible. 

The risk of lower GDP, and wealth, does not magically make safe government spending unlimited.  One of the perfections of UBI, pandemic or not, is that it is not charitable favouritism.  It is self funded with higher tax rates, or just simple changes in the tax code.  Those whose income/profits are not impaired by the pandemic subsidize the country so that they can keep an economy/civilization that allows them to continue earning income.

The thieving filth that supports bailing out airlines (or generally any other program) is steeling from you.  $60B is $300 that could be paid to each adult American.  If there is no reason to fly very much right now, then parking the planes instead of blowing them up, will keep airlines in a position to resume flight schedules over time.  Market restructuring of the companies/debt would reduce airline fares.  Bailouts do not.  $300 cash would be preferred by anyone not in airline industry, that also allows individuals to buy more air travel.  

Social antipathy and revolt management
The traditional justification for left wing policy such as unemployment insurance is that it prevents revolt.  The unemployed recipient of benefits does not care that he is paid to do nothing-- incentivized to not earn employment income for duration of benefits.  He is just happy to be catered to, or more relevantly, not  motivated to participate in revolt.  Suicidal mass murder rampages are not a political threat, even if sociopathic.

The justification for right wing policy of corporate and rich bailouts is that the upper classes and media can collude to instill more oppression in the economy.  Prevent the rich to fund economically useful opposition to political rulership, by being included in the collusion.  Corporations and the rich are happy to pillage the economy rather than invest in it, because, like the unemployed, they like more free money, rather than the opportunity to work to make more.

Another practical argument for getting pluto-oligarchs to pillage the economy through inflated asset prices, is that inflated asset prices keep the economy afloat for longer with more to pillage.  UBI also supports asset prices, and benefits every oligarch who does not require slavery and oppression to profit.  UBI encourages the oligarchs to invest in a consumer rich economy.  Workers are better paid in a consumer rich economy, making it even more consumer rich, and justifying even more investment.  UBI means genuinely/sustainable higher asset prices, rather than juiced up unsustainable artificially high asset prices.

The problem with traditional revolt management policies, besides their evil or stupidity, is that there is a limited amount of money, and the greater the lie in asset prices, the greater the eventual crash.  The lie can never be unwound.  Every penny not spent on unconditional cash/UBI is a penny wasted.  The waste creates revolt potential after the pandemic has passed, and paying for the waste is through proposals for more tax cuts on the rich and military overspending (and pillaging cuts to safety nets).

UBI means more social cohesion, and less social pathy.  Even the rich do not need to fund revolt if there are consumer spending opportunities, and no matter how stupid and gullible you are, your jealousy, hatred and racism cannot be manipulated into rejecting the freedom dividend you deserve.

Despite revolt prevention, which requires coordination and great effort and risk, structured sociopathy (amplifying anger and discontent) increases virus spread because it is a low effort means to act out on social anger/indifference.  When pandemic response policy does not maximize unconditional cash, it does not maximize social cohesion needed to limit willful/indiferent virus spread and limit anxiety/despair and the potential health consequences thereof. 

Inflation, deflation, and election management
The US federal reserve is primarily, almost exclusively, a pro banking institution.  In September 2019, the Fed began what would become by the end of the year a $1T printed injection in repo operations on top of interest rate cuts.  These actions were pure political pro-Trump hackery designed to interfere with Democratic primaries, with no economic purpose whatsoever, and based on initial lie that it was to help smooth over quaterly tax payments by banking clients.  The actual purpose was to juice financial markets, by replacing lenders who would normally juice financial markets through their loans, who were buying in financial markets instead of lending, with Fed repo loans that the borrowers could also use to cheaply buy into financial markets.  Investigation for criminal indictment of Federal reserve for those actions alone are warranted, but pandemic Fed response as a ploy to delay civilization collapse until after a Trump re-election needs to be guarded against.  There is enough people with power who prefer Trump re-election even if it collapses civilization.  Destroying America was always plan A.

The Fed and its banking constituency always needs to prevent asset deflation above all other concerns.  Banking system loans depends on collateral that remains valued higher than the loan value.  The real money supply is the sum of asset values.  The major problem with juicing up asset values in casual (good) economic times is that the inflated lie becomes the baseline against which deflation must be protected.

When the banking system is not threatened by collapse inducing deflation, they prefer interest rates around 5% for decent profit from loans environment, that includes enough unemployment to make slavery/labour oppression a profitable environment for borrowers to be able to repay those loans.  Asset inflation without wage and goods/services inflation works nicely for banks, except that with high asset inflation they could, if allowed, invest in assets directly rather than lend against them, though asset inflation is never sustainably certain.  For banking system, and general society, it is only relative (changes in) inflation that is of concern.  Any stable inflation rate, no matter how high, provides a good profit framework for banking system.

UBI is no threat to the inflation/deflation balance, or to banking system profits.  Tax funded UBI does not reduce banking system deposits, it does increase loan demand, makes a high growth economy such that those loans are likely to be repaid, and any inflation in assets and labour/prices, enhances sustainable economic growth and asset price inflation, loan values and interest margins.  Stock assets are genuinely and sustainably worth more as a result of higher sales volume, rather than the recent unsustainable pillaging of increasing stock prices through buybacks and cost cutting.

The coming stagflation
Stagflation was a term/phenomenon from the 1970s where high inflation associated with oil shock, led to high interest rates, high unemployment, and recessionary times.  Normally recessions lead to low interest rates.

Businesses that (re)open at 25% capacity need to charge customers enough to earn 4x profit per customer in order to maintain previous full capacity profits.  They need fewer employees at the lower capacity.  They need to increase sanitation/screening/health costs that are passed on to 1/4 of the customer base.  There is likely to be upward pressure on wages as a hazard (and welfare surtax) premium, unless a systematic structured starvation policy is adopted.

The major problem with opportunistic theft of Fed and government spending policy being diverted to propping up asset prices, and the richest's wealth, under the lie that the economy, and those underlying asset prices, will be back to their unsustainable normals in a month, is that the lying pretense is a lie.  Interest rates will have to shoot up to reflect risk of borrowers.  Any money given to airlines is a complete writeoff (the industry goes bankrupt every recession, and not even their employees are special snow flakes deserving more than their fellow citizens), and less ammunition to maintain asset prices at a credible (still higher than sustainable) level in the future.

The travel, entertainment, hospitality sectors may be a relatively modest percentage of economic spending, but they are a high employment percentage, and the human survival of the sector is important to the rest of the economy.  US travel and tourism $1.6T, 7.8M jobs; restaurants $300B 15.1M jobs; Live event and movie box offices $40B.  About 10% of economy in total, but up to 20% of jobs.  This can mean a 10%-20% revenue reduction to businesses that would presumably be unaffected by virus, and 10%-20% employment reduction in those industries.  There are further downward spiraling 10%-20% knock-on effects.

There is no possible Fed fueling/buying of inflated company assets that makes those companies be able to operate at a loss indefinitely.  Grossly inflated Fed asset purchases, as they have done at the beginning of this crisis, necessarily has a limit, and necessarily leads to a collapse in those asset prices when that limit is reached, and transparently absurd pretense of US dollar and assets value becomes clearer.  Fed corruption, prevents the massive amount of available global and US wealth from taking the risks to bail out/restructure these companies at a fair rate, but where the risk is individualized to those willing to take it, rather than a risk of forced collapse that impairs everyone's survival.

UBI is an excellent prevention of this upcoming stagflation collapse.  Higher tax rates can provide partial temporary funding, where, automatically, those successful enough to prosper in the near term economic environment can help subsidize the economic contributions from those who are harmed from near term economic environment, all the while, increasing the economic success of the successful (through spending of UBI).  UBI can mean that people can afford the higher prices that result from lower capacity hospitality/entertainment/travel consumption.  UBI means being able to afford rent/mortgages that prevents banking sector collapse.  It means most companies can maintain previous sales volumes that prevents collapse of their shareholder wealth.  It significantly boosts employment demand so that ordinary workers can thrive, and frees up time/creativity to create own work and opportunities to employ others in adaptation to economic needs.

The benefits of UBI outweigh the benefits of slavery to both the ruling oligarchs and to the slaves.  Military, clergy, and politicians, and to a lesser extent exporters, are the only ones who require perpetual popular misery to thrive.  They can be pressured and outnumbered to relent to freedom.

Health sector information we need clarified
We know that the majority of c19 infections are aymptomatic at time of test.  We don't know whether the asymptomatic are only temporarily so (like HIV), or recover without any symptoms ever occurring , and we don't know if these individuals shed less virus through breath, or touch from breath on hands, than those who are symptomatic.  (suggestion that asymptomatics are as contagious as others and can frequently recover without infection)

For the viral model described at the beginning of this paper, the key parameter needed from biology/health sector is how much virus is shed from aymptomatics through breath through mask.  This number, determines from presumed percentage of infected who cannot be screened out by fever checks will contribute to virus levels in indoor air.

With a universal threshold X intake per day, followed by prescribed isolation days to let the body reduce virus levels, the customer traffic within a space, along with air quality measures (filtering and outside air exchange), safe density policies can be developed for both employees and customers in establishments and vehicles.

Model data can focus indoor air quality measures that increase capacity for a space.  In addition to filters, UV lighting has purported benefits.  It is likely more profitable to install UV lighting than to operate a space at 1/4 capacity.

A phone app can help everyone model safety for many activities, and do so better than a doctor, or at least not consume their time,  if the health sector provides the needed parameters.

Preliminary model input data
High rates of infection among nursing home residents and health care workers who take hygiene advice seriously should strongly point to indoor air "quality" (viral load within indoor space) as a transmission vector.  If correct, high grade masks and better air exchange/filtering would be highly recommended, if rationing were not an issue.  Health advice based on secret (as possible) rationing restrictions harms the policy efforts required to remove the rationing restrictions.

Regardless of whether indoor environments can be classified as dangerous, it seems absurd to have an identical social distancing recommendation (2m) in indoor calm, and outdoor turbulent environments.

The lack of transmissivity-circumstance models leads to simplified advice bias towards being too harsh, or biased to being insufficient where rationing leads to insufficiency.  Propaganda models lead to socialpathy and non-conformance.