This paper will first explore a micro virology model, and then discuss economic management. The most important contribution of this paper is consideration of social apathy and antipathy as a viral spreading factor, and as usual for my papers, UBI is a central component of the solution, though mainly the context of social antipathy is being considered.
A micro viral spreading model
Macro viral models are best represented by summing over micro (individuallistic) models. The summation can be simplified with averages and distribution of individuals (micro models). This model measures virus concentrations in an individual as the only factor in health and spreading outcomes.
- X: Threshold of virus below there is any outgoing infectious spread. If no further incoming infectious load, it is likely that immune response will bring virus level to 0.
- Y: Threshold below which there are no symptoms.
- Z: Threshold below which symptoms are mild enough to not seek medical (doctor) advice, or where general immune boosting activities (sleep, rest, vitamins, no further virus exposure) can hope to cause recovery.
- H: Threshold below which hospitalization is not necessary/advised/sufficiently helpful. The healthcare empire may subdivide these thresholds into further ICU, and ventilator therapy thresholds. The necessary rationing/demand of healthcare further sets the "advised" component of this threshold.
- D: Threshold below which patient is still alive, or has hopeful prognosis. Prognosis is relevant relative to healthcare availability factors.
But, another critical benefit of testing is "forced" quarantine. Can support the quarantined with free delivered food, thermometers, and possibly home entertainment services of their choice. The cost is minimal, but lower community spread benefits immense. Simpler support service for the quarantined is an increased UBI amount.
Priority for outdoor economic/social activities, especially for summer, is important. Closing off car traffic for street festivals every weekend, and/or weekday, with pop ups in front of every retail/restaurant location with limited indoor capacity use. Heavy increase in food cart licensing. Public hand sanitizing dispensers.
Renewable energy projects would be a good outdoor employment, or personal home renovation work, opportunity.
Despite revolt prevention, which requires coordination and great effort and risk, structured sociopathy (amplifying anger and discontent) increases virus spread because it is a low effort means to act out on social anger/indifference. When pandemic response policy does not maximize unconditional cash, it does not maximize social cohesion needed to limit willful/indiferent virus spread and limit anxiety/despair and the potential health consequences thereof.
The US federal reserve is primarily, almost exclusively, a pro banking institution. In September 2019, the Fed began what would become by the end of the year a $1T printed injection in repo operations on top of interest rate cuts. These actions were pure political pro-Trump hackery designed to interfere with Democratic primaries, with no economic purpose whatsoever, and based on initial lie that it was to help smooth over quaterly tax payments by banking clients. The actual purpose was to juice financial markets, by replacing lenders who would normally juice financial markets through their loans, who were buying in financial markets instead of lending, with Fed repo loans that the borrowers could also use to cheaply buy into financial markets. Investigation for criminal indictment of Federal reserve for those actions alone are warranted, but pandemic Fed response as a ploy to delay civilization collapse until after a Trump re-election needs to be guarded against. There is enough people with power who prefer Trump re-election even if it collapses civilization. Destroying America was always plan A.
The Fed and its banking constituency always needs to prevent asset deflation above all other concerns. Banking system loans depends on collateral that remains valued higher than the loan value. The real money supply is the sum of asset values. The major problem with juicing up asset values in casual (good) economic times is that the inflated lie becomes the baseline against which deflation must be protected.
When the banking system is not threatened by collapse inducing deflation, they prefer interest rates around 5% for decent profit from loans environment, that includes enough unemployment to make slavery/labour oppression a profitable environment for borrowers to be able to repay those loans. Asset inflation without wage and goods/services inflation works nicely for banks, except that with high asset inflation they could, if allowed, invest in assets directly rather than lend against them, though asset inflation is never sustainably certain. For banking system, and general society, it is only relative (changes in) inflation that is of concern. Any stable inflation rate, no matter how high, provides a good profit framework for banking system.
UBI is no threat to the inflation/deflation balance, or to banking system profits. Tax funded UBI does not reduce banking system deposits, it does increase loan demand, makes a high growth economy such that those loans are likely to be repaid, and any inflation in assets and labour/prices, enhances sustainable economic growth and asset price inflation, loan values and interest margins. Stock assets are genuinely and sustainably worth more as a result of higher sales volume, rather than the recent unsustainable pillaging of increasing stock prices through buybacks and cost cutting.
The coming stagflation
Stagflation was a term/phenomenon from the 1970s where high inflation associated with oil shock, led to high interest rates, high unemployment, and recessionary times. Normally recessions lead to low interest rates.
Businesses that (re)open at 25% capacity need to charge customers enough to earn 4x profit per customer in order to maintain previous full capacity profits. They need fewer employees at the lower capacity. They need to increase sanitation/screening/health costs that are passed on to 1/4 of the customer base. There is likely to be upward pressure on wages as a hazard (and welfare surtax) premium, unless a systematic structured starvation policy is adopted.
The major problem with opportunistic theft of Fed and government spending policy being diverted to propping up asset prices, and the richest's wealth, under the lie that the economy, and those underlying asset prices, will be back to their unsustainable normals in a month, is that the lying pretense is a lie. Interest rates will have to shoot up to reflect risk of borrowers. Any money given to airlines is a complete writeoff (the industry goes bankrupt every recession, and not even their employees are special snow flakes deserving more than their fellow citizens), and less ammunition to maintain asset prices at a credible (still higher than sustainable) level in the future.
The travel, entertainment, hospitality sectors may be a relatively modest percentage of economic spending, but they are a high employment percentage, and the human survival of the sector is important to the rest of the economy. US travel and tourism $1.6T, 7.8M jobs; restaurants $300B 15.1M jobs; Live event and movie box offices $40B. About 10% of economy in total, but up to 20% of jobs. This can mean a 10%-20% revenue reduction to businesses that would presumably be unaffected by virus, and 10%-20% employment reduction in those industries. There are further downward spiraling 10%-20% knock-on effects.
There is no possible Fed fueling/buying of inflated company assets that makes those companies be able to operate at a loss indefinitely. Grossly inflated Fed asset purchases, as they have done at the beginning of this crisis, necessarily has a limit, and necessarily leads to a collapse in those asset prices when that limit is reached, and transparently absurd pretense of US dollar and assets value becomes clearer. Fed corruption, prevents the massive amount of available global and US wealth from taking the risks to bail out/restructure these companies at a fair rate, but where the risk is individualized to those willing to take it, rather than a risk of forced collapse that impairs everyone's survival.
UBI is an excellent prevention of this upcoming stagflation collapse. Higher tax rates can provide partial temporary funding, where, automatically, those successful enough to prosper in the near term economic environment can help subsidize the economic contributions from those who are harmed from near term economic environment, all the while, increasing the economic success of the successful (through spending of UBI). UBI can mean that people can afford the higher prices that result from lower capacity hospitality/entertainment/travel consumption. UBI means being able to afford rent/mortgages that prevents banking sector collapse. It means most companies can maintain previous sales volumes that prevents collapse of their shareholder wealth. It significantly boosts employment demand so that ordinary workers can thrive, and frees up time/creativity to create own work and opportunities to employ others in adaptation to economic needs.
The benefits of UBI outweigh the benefits of slavery to both the ruling oligarchs and to the slaves. Military, clergy, and politicians, and to a lesser extent exporters, are the only ones who require perpetual popular misery to thrive. They can be pressured and outnumbered to relent to freedom.
Health sector information we need clarified
We know that the majority of c19 infections are aymptomatic at time of test. We don't know whether the asymptomatic are only temporarily so (like HIV), or recover without any symptoms ever occurring , and we don't know if these individuals shed less virus through breath, or touch from breath on hands, than those who are symptomatic. (suggestion that asymptomatics are as contagious as others and can frequently recover without infection)
For the viral model described at the beginning of this paper, the key parameter needed from biology/health sector is how much virus is shed from aymptomatics through breath through mask. This number, determines from presumed percentage of infected who cannot be screened out by fever checks will contribute to virus levels in indoor air.
With a universal threshold X intake per day, followed by prescribed isolation days to let the body reduce virus levels, the customer traffic within a space, along with air quality measures (filtering and outside air exchange), safe density policies can be developed for both employees and customers in establishments and vehicles.
Model data can focus indoor air quality measures that increase capacity for a space. In addition to filters, UV lighting has purported benefits. It is likely more profitable to install UV lighting than to operate a space at 1/4 capacity.
A phone app can help everyone model safety for many activities, and do so better than a doctor, or at least not consume their time, if the health sector provides the needed parameters.
Preliminary model input data
High rates of infection among nursing home residents and health care workers who take hygiene advice seriously should strongly point to indoor air "quality" (viral load within indoor space) as a transmission vector. If correct, high grade masks and better air exchange/filtering would be highly recommended, if rationing were not an issue. Health advice based on secret (as possible) rationing restrictions harms the policy efforts required to remove the rationing restrictions.
Regardless of whether indoor environments can be classified as dangerous, it seems absurd to have an identical social distancing recommendation (2m) in indoor calm, and outdoor turbulent environments.
The lack of transmissivity-circumstance models leads to simplified advice bias towards being too harsh, or biased to being insufficient where rationing leads to insufficiency. Propaganda models lead to socialpathy and non-conformance.