Quicker post than usual confirming my early 2018 post on the promise of bitcoin. The title was confusing because unsophisticated readers would understand only 1 bitcoin vs 1 once of gold, though "worth more" was a reference to the value of all of the bitcoin compared to all of the gold. All of the major arguments for bitcoin were made then and are still valid today.
The major thesis of this paper is that for the next 70 years, bitcoin value will at least double every 4 years. This schedule is premised on the mining reward adjustment (halving) that takes place every 4 years, that value equals utility and technology and adoption increases utility and value.
Charts and graphs
The charts in this paper are calculated from daily data provided at blockchain.com from August 20,2010 to March 28, 2021. A price of $0.01/btc is added for August 19. Most of their data points are separated by 3 days. The highest price in their data is $57,665 on March 12, and last price in data, $55863.
|Bitcoin Price History|
The x axis ticks in these charts each represent 1 year from the start of the data. The x axis numbers are days since day 0 (august 19, 2010). Y axis, price in USD.
Number of days it took bitcoin to increase 900% in price
Not apparent due to scale of first chart, but bitcoin price increased by 10x (900%) very quickly in the first 2 and half years. Averaging under 1 year from any date. In 2013, it would take up to 4 years before a 10x price increase from some dates. This fell back under 1 year for some dates in 2017 and 2020. The data has been stripped of dates where a 10x price increase has yet to occur. The 2017 high will require a $192,000 bitcoin price in order to hit its 10x increase on that date. The very straight line segments towards the right of the graph indicate interpolation between missing (yet to be achieved) and real 10x achievements.
The sawtooth pattern in the graph underlies the exuberant/fast value increases that take place every 4 years mostly as a result of the mining reward adjustment. Bitcoin's history of volatile crashes is publicized more than the point that it has grown 10x+ over any 4 year period. Better shown in this next chart.
|4 year bitcoin return on investment (Price as multiple of 4 year earlier price) -start date of spring 2015|
Data earlier than 2015 is omitted because it includes returns over 100000x. The 2017 peak was only a 20x return over 2013 peak that occurred around the same date. There were higher 4 year returns earlier in 2017. March 28,2021 has a 4 year return of 60x. The 2 occasions where the 4 year return on bitcoin was "only" 10x/900%, were short lived, and precipitated strong/steep rallies. These returns exclude dividend/airdrop/forks.
If every other investment is stupid, then 50% of global wealth should move to bitcoin, and $8m/btc reflected 50% of 2017 global wealth. There is no visible end to central bank action attempting to inflate global wealth. The rise of bitcoin does not detract from global wealth, and in fact adds to it.
At $100k/btc, bitcoin will approximate gold's total private investment value. Gold will always have poorer transactibility, security and transportability. Gold's supply increases as its price does: Miners get more active, and the "cash for gold" pawn shops recycle the jewelry market.
Government Bonds, in the US, will provide a 17% return over 10 years if everything goes perfectly. Less in Europe. There are only 2 reasons to buy 10 year bonds. Either confidence that rates will go down even more, or a simplistic intent to hold the full 10 years. It is unlikely for government bonds today to have returns higher than inflation, and unlikely that rates go down further.
It is possible to earn interest on bitcoin that is higher than government bond interest, with or without locking a deposit, as well as inherently being protected from inflation, and as well as having the conservative expectation of 400%/5x gains over 10 years.
Stocks are a stupid investment if they are valued for perfection. Facebook can turn into My Space. Apple can turn into Blackberry/Nokia, Microsoft can turn into IBM.... over a 10 year period, or at the end of that 10 year period, concern that it may come true in the next 10 years. Compared to bitcoin there is always more uncertainty around companies ability to 5x in value over 10 years, and as an outsider, you are at a huge disadvantage compared to self dealing insiders and the wealth able to control them.
Price variability/volatility of an investment does not imply speculation. Hoping a stupid investment goes up in the shorter term is speculation.
|Projected bitcoin high price by year (in thousands) as function of 2021 high|
Past price appreciation has been much faster than these projections, and its reasonable to hope that price appreciation exceeds this pace in short term (first few olympic periods). But this pace is sufficient to invalidate the attractiveness of alternatives, and the real ultimate limit is global wealth % based.
Other crypto currencies
Several alternative crypto currencies provide value through different utility, but the utlimate utility is being able to send large transactions securely. The major fault typical of newer projects is centralization and self dealing of their tokens. Proof of stake blockchains are further self dealing to initial card holders, validating the blockchain without effort or "external" cost. Delegated proof of stake further offers mining rewards using other people's money, and may open cheating vectors. Reputable project directors are a vector for geopolitical control and corruption of projects. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has significant external validation cost, that guarantee security and a price floor, and no geopolitical control vectors.
The stable value of alternative crypto is relative to bitcoin. Many projects are worth using due to their utility, especially DEFI disintermediation of financial services, but a relatively small allocation is advised.
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Much of this occurs on social commerce platforms like Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram. But, increasingly, brands like Lush UK are bringing their communities back to their own digital storefronts. In an ideal world, you would have a profit margin of 60-70%, especially if you were intending to sell your products on to other retailers at a later date. However, many businesses, especially those who are resellers, or selling products that they have bought from other businesses, will have a profit margin around 50% or even lower. It goes without saying that ecommerce will only grow more competitive. We can expect subscription and loyalty programs to continue to grow, providing convenience, exclusivity, and savings to shoppers. https://www.reviewengin.com/10-ecommerce-business-ideas-2022/
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Not Sure Where To Start?
What’s not as well known is all the other tasks an e-commerce business broker should perform for you. We vet both buyers and sellers who want to use our marketplace. To find out what these processes are, it can be helpful to speak to an industry professional—someone that oversees deals for a living.
Determine What You Want To Sell
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Ecosia is unique on our list in that it donates a portion of profits to charity and is strictly focused on planting trees. It is based in Germany and claims to be a private search engine. However, some of the things it does make it unsuitable for our main list of truly private search engines. Being based in Europe, it is held to data privacy protections that are much stricter than those in the United States and many other countries. Qwant promises to protect user privacy and keep people from getting stuck in the filter bubble.This is all good since Qwant primarily gets its search results from Microsoft’s Bing search engine. Unlike some of the other private search engines, Mojeek is true search engine with its own crawler.
In October 2015 Yahoo agreed with Google to provide search-related services and until October 2018, the results of Yahoo were powered both by Google and Bing. Bing is Microsoft’s attempt to challenge Google in search, but despite their efforts, they still did not manage to convince users that their search engine can be as reliable as Google. “Privacy” seems to be the buzz word at the moment but what I need is a SEARCH ENGINE – NOT an Ad Server. Something that will search for what my search string stipulates and not what the search engine wants to sell me! Where are the bots that Yahoo used to use in the late 1980’s ??? If I want to search for “Mobile satellite systems” then I do NOT want hundreds of ads for mobile phones. https://www.reviewengin.com/category/seo/
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Before pursuing a partnership, brands and influencers alike should ensure brand fit, meaning that an influencer is aligned with the brand and product. As of May 2020, US and UK consumers who followed influencers were most interested in influencer content that entertained or helped them with their daily lives amid the pandemic. Brands are increasingly tapping micro- and nanoinfluencers, kidfluencers, gaming influencers, and virtual influencers for marketing opportunities. This free tool from Facebook allows brands to connect with pre-screened content creators on Facebook and Instagram. Hootsuite search streams can help you discover influencers by monitoring conversations relevant to your industry across multiple channels. You could also request that the influencer send you detailed reports on the reach and engagement levels of their posts.
So let’s take a moment to acknowledge the aspiring influencers who are growing their following. These people post about their favorite brands and products simply because they love them. Granted, they’re probably also hoping for a brand deal in the long run, but at the time that they post, they aren’t making any money for their efforts. Influencers have the ability to reach very specific audiences.
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Advertising is the techniques and practices used to bring products, services, opinions, or causes to public notice to persuade the public to respond in a certain way toward what is advertised. Besides promoting goods for sale, advertising methods are used to encourage people to drive safely, support various charities, vote for political candidates, etc. Those statistics are simply too big to ignore, and as a local business, you need to understand the fact that Facebook is an intersection in which you can find prospective customers. If this hasn’t convinced you yet then let’s talk about how often social media is being used.
By far, the most significant change has been in digital ad spending. A research report by Zenith expects U.S. internet ad spending to increase 12.4 percent in 2020 to over $135 billion, which accounts for 53 percent of ad spending. If you have an online presence, try communicating with your customers through email. Streetcar with advertisementsStreetcar emblazoned with advertisements in Würzburg, Germany.
Digital advertising consists of a range of services, all of which work to promote a business online. More and more businesses are increasing the amount that they spend on online advertising as we are now able to recognise that it increases awareness and leads—it’s that simple. With the advent of the ad server, online advertising grew, contributing to the "dot-com" boom of the 1990s.
Sale-based ads can be generated by local retail outlets, or can originate from the product's national manufacturer. In many cases, the national manufacturer shares the cost of the ad with the local retailer. This type of advertising is called co-op advertising, and commonly uses manufacturer-supplied graphics and ad templates.
Establishing the target market is the critical first step in any advertising campaign – you need to know who your intended audience is before you can reach them. If your target audience is senior citizens, for example, an advertising medium such as Facebook is a poor choice. Similarly, Millennials are much less likely to read newspapers or use the Yellow Pages. While it might seem expensive to advertise on television or the radio if you choose local chapters, the reach can be worthwhile. https://www.reviewengin.com/category/advertising/
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Thomas Tuchel was fired by Chelsea on Wednesday, only one month into the season and just days after the club concluded a Europe-high spending spree of nearly $300 million in the transfer window. The decision by Chelsea's new ownership, fronted by Los Angeles Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly, came a day after the team surprisingly lost to Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 in its first group match of the Champions League. WASHINGTON — The Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday denied a request by Cheniere Energy, a leading U.S. producer of liquefied natural gas, to exempt two Gulf Coast plants from a federal air pollution rule. https://www.reviewengin.com/ecommerce-business-ideas/
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